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Sunday, May 31, 2009

Who is Nouriel Roubini ?



Professor Nouriel Roubini is a globally renowned expert in the field of international macroeconomics. He is a Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and the co-founder and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics Monitor (www.rgemonitor.com), an innovative economic and geo-strategic information and analysis advisory service, named one of the best economics websites by Business Week, Forbes, the Wall Street Journal and The Economist.Who is Nouriel Roubini

Professor Roubini
has impressive academic credentials as well as extensive policy experience. From 1998-2000, he served as the Senior Economist for International Affairs at the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. Amongst other issues, he was heavily involved in resolving the Asian and global financial crises. He advises numerous prominent public and private institutions, including The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and over 60 Central Banks.

Professor Roubini has published over 70 theoretical, empirical and policy papers on international macroeconomic issues and co-authored the books “Political Cycles: Theory and Evidence” (M.I.T. Press, 1997) and “Bailouts or Bail-ins? Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets” (Institute for International Economics, 2004). Professor Roubini’s views on global economics issues are widely cited by the media, and his web-site was named one of 20 “must-read” sources by the WSJ.

Professor Roubini received an undergraduate degree from Bocconi University in Milan, Italy and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. Prior to joining New York University, he was a faculty member of the Economics Department at Yale University.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Nouriel Roubini Dr. Doom, Prophet of the Financial Apocalypse



This year, Nouriel Roubini, the economist known to the general public as Dr. Doom, Prophet of the Financial Apocalypse, spent the early hours of Mardi Gras on the floor of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It was only 11 a.m., but the party was rollicking. Traders careened around the floor, hooting and honking, dressed as dragons and devils and convicts. Rock music roared overhead, and no one seemed to care that, by the bye, the market had tanked. Tickled, Roubini registered the flicker of amusement on his Twitter thread: "Nouriel is at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange," he wrote, "where everyone is dressed in Mardi Gras costumes even if the market is down 2.5%."

Roubini has always been a bon vivant--a trait that has mesmerized the tabloids ever since Facebook photos surfaced of him, the professional pessimist, partying ... with women. But, today, there was no time to celebrate. First, he had to go see Axel Weber, head of the nearby German Central Bank, to discuss "how the German taxpayer is going to have to bail out the lazy Italians and the lazy Greeks," who were up to their eyebrows in debt. Then there was a panel discussion with finance gurus Robert Merton and Stephen Ross; there were clients to counsel, a keynote address to deliver, and e-mails, hundreds of e-mails, slowly piling up in the BlackBerry on his belt. By the time he responded to the ones worth responding to and updated his blog, it was nearing 4 a.m., and he only had time to sneak in a few hours of sleep before another day of flights, meetings, conferences, and TV appearances.

When I caught up with Roubini three days later, he was draped over a booth in an Upper East Side diner, his hair rumpled, collar undone. The speckled blue tie he had worn on Maria Bartiromo's show that afternoon was gone. His speech was still a rapid spit-out of facts and favored metaphors (the government "cannot be half-pregnant" with the banks), with modifiers in just the wrong places ("I was all day long giving talks"), but it was disembodied: Roubini was wiped and having a hard time propping himself up.

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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Nouriel Roubini speech at Yeshiva University Israel 18 may 2009

Nouriel Roubini discusses the current financial crisis at Yeshiva University's Alexander Brody Distinguished Lecture in Economics

Saturday, May 16, 2009

China’s yuan is likely to become world’s main reserve currency instead of the Dollar


The dollar’s role as the world’s main reserve currency may be challenged, according to Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the current financial crisis. China’s yuan is likely to become a serious contender within a decade as the U.S. runs increased budget and trade deficits, Roubini wrote in the New York Times.
China's yuan 'set to usurp US dollar' as world's reserve currency
The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.
Professor Roubini, of New York University's Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan's ascendance.

Known as "Dr Doom" for his negative stance, Prof Roubini argues that China is better placed than the US to provide a reserve currency for the 21st century because it has a large current account surplus, focused government and few of the economic worries the US faces.
In a column in the New York Times, Prof Roubini warns that with the proposal for a new international reserve currency via the International Monetary Fund, Beijing has already begun to take steps to usurp the greenback.

China will soon want to see the yuan included in the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights "basket", he warns, as well as seeing it "used as a means of payment in bilateral trade."

Prof Roubini's warning followed the US government's latest economic data that showed producer prices in April experienced their biggest year-on-year drop since 1950, falling 3.7pc.

The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefit for the first time rose by 32,000 to 637,000 in the week to May 9. The increase meant the total number of people claiming benefits stood at to 6.56m, a record high for the 15th consecutive week in a row.

But neither the gloomy data, nor Prof Roubini's verdict on the greenback's future, held back the markets. The Dow Jones traded up 59.89 at 8344.78 in lunchtime trading.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Nouriel Roubini on Bloomberg 12 may 09

The Unemployment rate could be 11% by the end of this year...the stress tests were not stressful enough...

Nouriel Roubini Stress Tests not stressful enough

Nouriel Roubini on CNN Money Stress tests too weak
Economist Nouriel Roubini explains that the government stress tests were 'not stressful enough.'


Dr. Doom to Change Tune?


May 11 2009

Nouriel Roubini, of RGEMonitor.com, has called the current rally a "false" one. Could the man who predicted the credit crisis be spot on again? The Fast Money traders discuss.

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Monday, May 11, 2009

Roadmap to Recovery ?

Today's jobs report points to an economy that may be starting to stabilize, but not everyone is convinced. John Lonski, of Moody's Investors Service, and Nouriel Roubini, of RGEMonitor.com, share their insights.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Nouriel Roubini on CNBC May 6 2009

Prolonging the Recovery Process
The improvement of the financial condition of the U.S. financial system might take longer than otherwise because two key issues aren't being addressed. Nouriel Roubini, co-founder & chairman at RGE Monitor tells CNBC's Karen Tso what they are.

U.S. Banks Need a Dose of Creative Destruction Roubini Says

By Alan Purkiss

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government's stress tests on 19 U.S. banks, the results of which are to be published today, will be presented as showing that none have failed, but the market will judge otherwise, said Nouriel Roubini and Matthew Richardson, both economists at New York University.

Writing in the Financial Times, they said institutions needing billions of dollars of extra capital will be considered close to insolvency and will therefore be unable to raise outside capital, so the government will have to step in again.

The question is whether it's right to help these banks, or whether the government should instead let them fail and concentrate instead on ways of managing the systemic risk of such failures, Roubini and Richardson said.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Roubini Sees Negative U.S. Growth Through Year End

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the current financial crisis, comments on the prospects for economic growth.

Roubini says the U.S. economy may see negative growth through the end of the year end and recovery would be "weak" in 2010. Roubini, speaking in Singapore, also discusses outlook for the financial-services industry. (Source: Bloomberg)


00:00 Outlook for negative growth through year end
00:22 "Creeping nationalization" of banks; economy



Nouriel Roubini, Professor, Chairman of RGE Monitor on France 24

The world economy has moved a step further into crisis, as the scale of bank losses continues to rise. Nouriel Roubini, predicted the current financial turmoil. He explains why nationalization of banks could be one answer to the crisis.




Tuesday, May 5, 2009

U.S. Bank Recovery Isn't Credible, Richardson and Roubini Say


By Alan Purkiss

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- The results of the U.S. government's stress tests on the banks will be taken as showing that the worst of the financial crisis is past, but the reality is quite different, said Nouriel Roubini amnd Matthew Richardson, both economists at New York University.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, they said the International Monetary Fund puts losses on U.S. loans and securities at $2.7 trillion, double its estimate of six months ago, and the calculations of RGE Monitor, the consulting firm of which Roubini is chairman, point to a total of $3.6 trillion, indicating that the financial system is close to insolvency on aggregate.

This means ``bailout purgatory'' is back, they said, before listing some suggestions for getting out of it.

First, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's program of financial-asset purchases shouldn't be given up, for it promotes price discovery and does the job of removing toxic assets from the banks' balance sheets.

Second, Roubini and Richardson argued, the government should stop providing no-strings capital and loan guarantees and impose covenants restricting asset-use, risk-taking behavior and future indebtedness.

Third, they said, given the likelihood that some of the banks will be insolvent, the government must devise a plan for dealing with them that doesn't involve unlimited amounts of taxpayers' money; that means it will have to manage the systemic danger resulting from these institutions' failure while transferring risk from taxpayers to creditors.

Congress should quickly pass an ``insolvency regime law'' giving the government authority to handle complex financial institutions in receivership, as it's been requested to do, Roubini and Richardson said.

The administration should hold out such a law as an incentive for creditors to cooperate in a debt-for-equity swap; while this will result in a ``$1 trillion game of chicken,'' it's the best way forward, otherwise taxpayers will just go on paying, the economists concluded.

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Monday, May 4, 2009

Roubini still Bearish


Roubini said last week he was “still bearish” and that an economic recovery is going to take “longer than expected.”

“Nearly all the broker research I read says ‘bear-market rally,’ that’s one of the other things that makes me think it’s the beginning of a bull market, not a bear-market rally,” Bolton said. “When everyone is extremely negative, I want to bet against that. If you wait for things to get better, you’ll miss the rally.”

Friday, May 1, 2009

Who Is Nouriel Roubini also known as Dr Doom ?

Nouriel Roubini is a Professor of Economics at New York University

Often called “Dr. Doom,” Roubini has been warning of the coming economic crisis since 2006 with uncanny accuracy on events leading to the downturn. He’s passionate about outlining scenarios of unprecedented economic panic and market loss, terrain many economists don’t touch. Roubini served as advisor to the Treasury Department and as member of the White House Council of Ecnomic Advisors under the Clinton Administration, focusing on international affairs.

Early Take on the Crisis: September 2007: “I expect that this financial turmoil is going to persist and it will be a vicious circle where the real economy gets worse and the financial markets get tighter and vice versa, the tightening of financial conditions leads to a slower economy.”

Current Outlook: He thinks the worst is not over for the economy, saying, “The global economy is now literally in free fall as the contraction of consumption, capital spending, residential investment, production, employment, exports and imports is accelerating rather than decelerating

Non-Economic Tidbit: Roubini is fluent in four languages -- Farsi, Hebrew, Italian and English.

NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG