Saturday, October 31, 2009
October 31, 2009
The global markets are at risk of crashing when the dollar rebounds, says economist Nouriel Roubini.
Roubini, a professor at NYU, is credited with long predicting the financial collapse of 2007 and 2008.
“In the short run what’s happening is there’s a wall of liquidity, not just in the U.S., but around the world, that is chasing assets,” he told CNBC.
“It’s equities, it’s commodities, it’s credit, it’s gold, it’s emerging market asset classes.”
And what does that amount to? “Now we are in the mother of all carry trades,” Roubini says.
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Friday, October 30, 2009
"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."
"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades,"
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."
The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.
"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Dr. Nouriel Roubini better knows as Doctor doom is a professor of economics and international business at the Stern School of Business at NYU and chairman of RGE Monitor,he is best known for his prescient predictions of the financial market collapse in 2005.
Friday, October 23, 2009
"There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets: commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument."
Roubini said :
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NEW YORK - Conventional wisdom rarely survives a good stress test, and few tests have been as stressful as that which the global economy has endured over the past 24 months. A healthy season of reappraisal has dawned, shining a new light on boom-time notions like the value of opaque markets, the untouchable status of the American consumer, or the wisdom of deregulation.
One piece of bubble wisdom that has escaped relatively unscathed, however, is the assumption that the "BRIC" countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - will increasingly call the economic tune in years to come. The BRIC notion, coined in a 2003 Goldman Sachs report, is not all bad: at 75 percent correct, it scores a good deal better than most economic prognostications of the day.
Yet the economic crisis that began in 2008 exposed one of the four as an impostor. Set the vital statistics of the BRIC economies side-by-side and it becomes painfully obvious that, in the words of the old Sesame Street game, "One of these things is not like the other."
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Monday, October 19, 2009
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Monday, October 12, 2009
In a ranking of financial development released by the World Economic Forum The United States went down from first to third place after the U.K. and Australia .
"There is a trade-off," said Nouriel Roubini CEO of RGE Global Monitor and co-author of the study. "Countries with more regulation in financial systems are more stable, but access to credit is much weaker."
Roubini noted that, while financial stability is important, overtime financial innovation is key to provide the necessary financing to the economy and ensure growth.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Investor George Soros says the U.S. banking system is "basically bankrupt," in sharp contrast to Goldman's upgrade of the large banks.
Nouriel Roubini says "markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast," and will retreat when economic news refutes the V-shaped consensus, Bloomberg reports.
Second Video bellow
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Economist Nouriel Roubini also warns bank losses on home mortgages likely to be repeated with business premises
Nouriel Roubini, the high-profile US economist who foresaw the credit crunch, warned today that house prices could fall by another 10%, underlining the fragility of America's nascent economic recovery.
Property prices in the US have already dropped by almost a third from their peak, as the crisis spread from lower-paid sub-prime borrowers to engulf the entire housing market. But Roubini said there could still be worse to come – and added that banks' heavy losses on home mortgages are likely to be repeated in the sliding market for business premises.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
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Tuesday, October 6, 2009
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Sunday, October 4, 2009
By Shamim Adam and Francine Lacqua
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.
“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul yesterday. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”
Stocks have surged around the world in the past six months as evidence mounts that the economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has soared 51 percent from a 12-year low in March while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 48 percent. The euphoria contrasts with the cautious tone of Group of Seven policy makers, who said after their meeting in Istanbul yesterday that prospects for growth “remain fragile.”
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