Friday, November 27, 2009
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The worldwide decline in equities spurred by Dubai’s efforts to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won’t be enough to protect financial markets, according to Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics.
Stock volatility will probably jump as countries and companies default on loans, said Das, the head of market research and strategy at RGE, the advisory firm founded by economist Nouriel Roubini.
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Friday, November 20, 2009
“Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening,” writes Nouriel Roubini in The New York Daily News.
“While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2 percent and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5 percent.”
“Remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession,” writes Roubini.
“That fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost,” writes Roubini.
“This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs.”
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Roubini has continuously had an unpleasant forecast for the economy. On the other hand, Buffett made it a point to demonstrate his faith in the economy when he announced his purchase of the railroad, saying “If you buy a railroad, you can’t move it to China or to India or anyplace else. You are betting on the United States. I can’t think of a surer bet.”
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Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Take oil prices: They have gone up from $30/barrel to over $80, at a time when demand is back to 2005 levels, and oil inventory is at all-time highs. Part of the increase is justified by fundamentals. But part of it is essentially this wall of liquidity chasing assets, and the effect of carry trade on the U.S. dollar, driving further higher these commodity prices.
So these nonfundamental factors can push oil and commodity prices higher, especially if there's going to be an increase in expected inflation. But the fundamentals of supply and demand actually suggest that, from now on, oil and other commodity prices should be lower, rather than higher."
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Friday, November 6, 2009
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Wednesday, November 4, 2009
The mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor , told CNBC.
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