Friday, November 27, 2009

Dubai Shows Limits of Government Rescues, Roubini s Das Says

Dubai Nouriel Roubini Blog
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The worldwide decline in equities spurred by Dubai’s efforts to reschedule its debt is a sign that government spending alone won’t be enough to protect financial markets, according to Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics.

Stock volatility will probably jump as countries and companies default on loans, said Das, the head of market research and strategy at RGE, the advisory firm founded by economist Nouriel Roubini.
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Friday, November 20, 2009

Roubini Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening

Nouriel Roubini Blog

Roubini: Many Jobs Gone Forever

“Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening,” writes Nouriel Roubini in The New York Daily News.

“While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2 percent and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5 percent.”
“Remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession,” writes Roubini.
“That fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost,” writes Roubini.

“This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs.”

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Nouriel Roubini On the next asset bubble

" day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments." Said Nouriel Roubini the NYU economist also nicknamed Dr Doom

Nouriel Roubini vs Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr. Doom) continues to have a gloomy outlook on the U.S. economy. Warren Buffett’s purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. shows his faith in the economy’s long-term health. Which one is right? asks Larry Swedroe of
Roubini has continuously had an unpleasant forecast for the economy. On the other hand, Buffett made it a point to demonstrate his faith in the economy when he announced his purchase of the railroad, saying “If you buy a railroad, you can’t move it to China or to India or anyplace else. You are betting on the United States. I can’t think of a surer bet.”
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Nouriel Roubini on Oil Prices

"If oil goes to $100 today, it will have the same effect on the global economy as what $147 oil had last year," said Nouriel Roubini

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Roubini Commodities and assets bubbles about to burst

Nouriel Roubini in an interview with HardassetsInvestor :"commodity prices have increased since the beginning of the year too much, too fast, when compared to the improvement in economic fundamentals. Some of that increase is justified. But if the global economy were to have a more anemic, subpar recovery—if instead of a V-shaped recovery, there's going to be a U-shaped recovery—then I actually think demand for commodities would be weak compared to supply, and there could be a correction in commodity prices in 2010.
Take oil prices: They have gone up from $30/barrel to over $80, at a time when demand is back to 2005 levels, and oil inventory is at all-time highs. Part of the increase is justified by fundamentals. But part of it is essentially this wall of liquidity chasing assets, and the effect of carry trade on the U.S. dollar, driving further higher these commodity prices.
So these nonfundamental factors can push oil and commodity prices higher, especially if there's going to be an increase in expected inflation. But the fundamentals of supply and demand actually suggest that, from now on, oil and other commodity prices should be lower, rather than higher."

Full Interview >>>

Friday, November 6, 2009

Roubini Economy could be hurt if oil gets to $100

By Barani Krishnan NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - An economist noted for his early warning that the United States was headed for a housing bust and oil shock said on Wednesday that oil's jump to $80 a barrel is unjustified and that a run to $100 may cause economic stress the way record highs near $150 did last year. "Part of the rise may be justified by global economic recovery...but going from $30 to $80 when demand for oil is down to 2005 levels is very difficult to justify," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman and co-founder of the RGE
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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Roubini The mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust

Roubini on Carry Trade

The mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor , told CNBC.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Roubini warns of The Mother of all Bubbles

“The longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger the ensuing asset bubble crash,” Roubini said. “One day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest coordinated asset bust ever.”
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