Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Low interest rates, over-sized leverage and increased deficit spending have all contributed to the continued rise of gold prices. Still, some experts believe that the current gold bubble will collapse as the global economy starts to slowly recover, and the US dollar comes back into favor. For more on this, see the following article fromBullion Vault
Nouriel Roubini was "one of the few to predict the financial crisis" reckons the Financial Times. Yet plenty of other chicken littles, amateur and professional, had long warned of trouble ahead, too.
Hence the 150% rise in Gold even before the crisis broke in August 2007. Set against negative real interest rates, unfettered bank leverage and runaway deficit spending, gold's rare physical persistence looked a fair bet. And absent Armageddon or double-digit inflation, a growing handful of people chose to store a chunk of their change in metal, starting around 2001.
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Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Oliver Stone holding court with billionaires Donald Trump, George Soros and Steve Schwarzman at a private party hosted by Nouriel Roubini -- nicknamed "Dr. Doom," for predicting the economic crisis -- at RdV Lounge in the Meatpacking District the NYPost reported ...
NYU professor and prophet of economic doom Nouriel Roubini hosted a party at RdV, a swanky basement lounge in the meatpacking district, and partied with his wingmen, George Soros and Donald Trump. Jude Law was photographed vacationing in Barbados with on-again girlfriend Sienna Miller. Kiefer Sutherland dined with Jon Bon Jovi at Lure Fishbar.
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Monday, December 28, 2009
Nouriel Roubini wrote his clients earlier this month: "If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities you can actually use in your log cabin."
Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University and one of the few experts to warn about the epic U.S. housing bubble and its consequences when there was still time for central bankers to safely deflate it, this month warns about "the new bubble in the barbarous relic that is gold."
Reminding clients of his financial advisory service that gold "has no intrinsic value," Roubini finds no fundamental justification for gold's rise "with no near-term risk of inflation or depression."
Early this month, Hu Xiaolian, a vice-governor of the People's Bank of China, was asked if the central bank would be replacing more of its greenbacks with gold after a gold purchase earlier this year. He said that was unlikely given that the bank now worries about the emergence of a gold bubble.
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Saturday, December 19, 2009
AS/COA hosted a presentation by Chairman of Roubini Global Economics RGE and New York University Professor of Economics Nouriel Roubini. Watch the video.
Roubini: There are two things. One is that global economic and financial conditions are improving. There is a recovery of growth even if it’s going to be anemic. Commodity prices have been rising. Financial conditions remain easy. Capital is flowing back to emerging markets. So that is the global outlook.
And two, these countries have shown their own resilience. Their economic policies have been sound and they’ve been able to conduct countercyclical policies. They’ve not experienced a financial crisis in these episodes. Their overall fundamentals are sound, so the combination of maintaining sound fundamentals and right economic policies with improvement in the global economic outlook implies a recovery.
Even with this recovery, the trend was 5.5 percent growth for the last eight or so years. Now we’re expecting only 3.8 percent. Of course, it’s much better than last year when there was a contraction, but it’s still below potential and below trend for 2010 in our view. We’re less bullish than some of those houses that suggested Latin America actually could go back to potential growth next year.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Keynesian, Roubini has an obvious disrespect for gold . "The New Bubble in the Barbarous Relic that Is Gold" Buy Spam rather than Gold said Roubini in his latest article , here is a snapshot :
In recent months gold prices have risen dramatically, first breaching the US$1000 barrier, then jumping another 20% in the past few weeks, surpassing US$1200 before correcting downward again to around US$1100. Some gold-bug bulls say the gold price could eclipse US$2000 in the next couple years. Is that possible? Is the recent rise of gold prices justified by fundamentals? An analysis of the facts suggests that a good part of this rise in gold prices is driven by a bubble.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Nouriel Roubini wrote today an article on Forbes about the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit and what could we expect from it , here is a snapshot from the article : Despite lowered expectations for the meeting, climate change mitigation, emissions reductions and clean technology have already benefited from more political firepower and government incentives than at any time in the past. In part, this reflects a growing acceptance of the economic and financial benefits of technological change and energy efficiency as countries seek out the next sources of growth. Thethorniest issues at Copenhagen concern who will finance the transition to a lower carbon economy.
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Tuesday, December 8, 2009
The U.S. has two economies, says Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Monitor. "There is a smaller one that is slowly recovering and a larger one that is still in a deep and persistent downturn," Roubini writes. Roubini notes that while America's official unemployment rate is 10.2 per cent, the figure jumps to a whopping 17.5 per cent when discouraged workers and partially employed workers are included. And, while data from firms suggest that job losses in the past three months were about 600,000, household surveys, which include self-employed workers and small entrepreneurs, suggest a number above two million. "Many of the lost jobs - in construction, finance, and outsourced manufacturing and services - are gone forever, and recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs can be fully outsourced over time to other countries," Roubini says. - MoneyNews
Monday, December 7, 2009
In an Interview with Yahoo Finance on October 23, 2009 Roubini answered when asked about Gold as a risky asset :
" I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being.
The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon."
Friday, December 4, 2009
According to ‘Dr.Doom’ NYU Economic’s professor and world economist Nouriel Roubini, who last year predicted the U.S. fallout, for the “first time in decades, there are sovereign risks among developed Western countries,..”
Source: read more Entire countries face bankruptcy
the heart of the saga is a message that investors shouldn't assume implicit government support. Credit ratings for Dubai-owned companies now reflect this lesson, based on a fundamental credit outlook, not an implicit government backstop.
Read the whole story: forbes.com
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Thursday, December 3, 2009
NEW YORK -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said Dubai's attempt to reschedule debt is a reminder of the global economy's vulnerability to a setback.
“Although Dubai World's financing issues are not a surprise and are relatively small given global credit losses, they are a reminder that the vulnerabilities and imbalances that contributed to the credit crunch have not disappeared,” Roubini said on his RGE Web site today.
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