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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Roubini from Davos warns about asset bubbles forming in emerging markets

Roubini though warned against a possible inflating of asset bubbles in emerging markets.
Roubini believes that the US also has a tough job on its hand: “It has to withdraw the stimulus packages or else it runs the risks of runaway fiscal deficits and sovereign defaults in the future. too soon, it also runs the chances of hampering the recovery,” Roubini added . “I would like the US to lay down a path of return of fiscal consolidation in the medium term.”

“I believe that growth in the US would be better in the first half than in the second as that is when it would look to exit its accommodative policy,” Roubini said.

Nouriel Roubini Debate at The Davos Annual Meeting 2010

Davos Annual Meeting 2010 - What Is the "New Normal" for Global Growth?


http://www.weforum.org 27.01.2010
Despite an upward revision of the International Monetary Fund's most recent World Economic Outlook, average real GDP growth of the global economy over the next five years is expected to be less than that of the five years (2003-2007) before the crisis.

In partnership with Time magazine, industry leaders, economists and policy-makers rethink the "new normal" for key economies going forward.

Dennis Nally, Chairman, PricewaterhouseCoopers International, PricewaterhouseCoopers, USA
Arif M. Naqvi, Founder and Group Chief Executive Officer, Abraaj Capital, United Arab Emirates; Co-Chair of the Governors Meeting for Investors 2010; Global Agenda Council on the Future of Pakistan
Raghuram G. Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, USA
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics Monitor, USA; Global Agenda Council on the International Monetary System
David M. Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Carlyle Group, USA
Heizo Takenaka, Director, Global Security Research Institute, Keio University, Japan; Member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum; Global Agenda Council on the Future of Japan

Moderated by
Michael J. Elliott, Editor, Time International, Time Magazine, USA

Friday, January 29, 2010

Roubini Greece Is Bankrupt

Nouriel Roubini
By: Kim Khan
News Editor, CNBC.com
Are we concentrating too much on sovereign debt concerns? Not according to Nouriel Roubini, who can still live up to his pessimistic reputation.


“Greece is bankrupt,” Roubini told CNBC.com at WEF. “Look, they have to ask China to help them out.”

Greece is trying to get trying to entice China to buy 25 billion euros ($35 billion) in bonds, according to published reports Wednesday.

If the situation becomes dire enough the European Union will be forced to help bail Greece out because it’s such a threat to the monetary union, he said.
Read Article>>>

Nouriel Roubini responds to Jim Rogers about the commodities bubble

Nouriel Roubini in Davos interviewed by CNBC January 27 2010


Hiring and income will remain weak in advanced economies, Nouriel Roubini , chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC. Nouriel Roubini is bullish about the emerging markets in the long run , but he admits that China is suffering from a commercial and residential real estate bubbles and an growing assets bubble , there are signs of overheating in the Chinese markets , Nouriel Roubini explains...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Roubini from Davos to CNN Money even China could get in trouble

Nouriel Roubini CNN Money From Davos


Gold is a bubble , China too could get in trouble said Nouriel Roubini


Roubini from Davos More Bubbles popping CNN Money

Nouriel Roubini A probable market correction for second half of 2010

The final session of the Asian Financial Forum 2010 looks at the opportunities for financial markets in Greater China and the role of banking in the new economic order. Professor Nouriel Roubini from New York Universitys Stern School of Business talked about China's challenges in facing the excessive capacity of non-performing. He remains positive towards Asia despite a probable market correction he projected for the second half of the year in traditional markets like US, Europe and Japan.
Visit http://www.asianfinancialforum.com for more information about AFF 2010.
Related Press Release:
http://www.hktdc.com/info/mi/a/tdcnew...

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Roubini from Davos Spain a Bigger Problem for EU Than Greece

Roubini From Davos calls Spain Bigger a Problem for EU Than Greece
Nouriel Roubini in Davos Switzerland talks with Bloomberg Telivision about the risks in the Spanish economy and the future of Europe's monetary union.

Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday, Roubini also discusses asset bubbles in China, banking regulation and the outlook for the dollar. (Source: Bloomberg)


Roubini from Davos Spain Bigger a Problem for EU Than Greece

Roubini From Davos calls Spain Bigger a Problem for EU Than Greece
Nouriel Roubini in Davos Switzerland talks with Bloomberg Telivision about the risks in the Spanish economy and the future of Europe's monetary union.

Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday, Roubini also discusses asset bubbles in China, banking regulation and the outlook for the dollar. (Source: Bloomberg)


Monday, January 25, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Speech at The AFF Asian Financial Forum 21 January 2010

Nouriel Roubini (NYU Professor, economist) gave a speech at the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong on January 21, 2010.
Roubini said a rally in stocks may end in the second half of the year amid a muted recovery in the world’s largest economies and as deflationary pressures limit gains in corporate earnings. (Source: Bloomberg)
some of the points discussed in this 28 minutes speech are :
# EMERGING MARKETS (China, Asia) will see a V-shaped recovery, growth rate 5-8%
# Emerging markets did not have leveraged household sector that ruined US, Europe
# China cannot be "main locomotive" for growth....

Roubini corporate bonds will outperform equities

nouriel roubini
Nouriel Roubini forecasts corporate bonds will outperform equities, the dollar will weaken and the interest rate on longer-dated U.S. government securities will fall toward the end of the year. A report with specific projections is currently being prepared.
“If I’m correct, by the second half of the year there’s going to be a slowdown of growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan,” Roubini said in Hong Kong on Jan. 21. “That could be the beginning of a market correction, because the macroeconomic news is going to surprise on the downside.”
in www.businessweek.com

Friday, January 22, 2010

Nouriel Roubini China should tighten its monetary policy

"The Chinese realize they unleashed a bit of a monster," he said. "They have to constrain it."
"Given the level of interest rates is very low in China and the economy is growing now closer to 9%-10%, you need direct credit controls," said Roubini. "China decided a year ago to repeg to the U.S. dollar , therefore it had to intervene aggressively to essentially prevent the appreciation from occurring. All this intervention has only been partially sterilized. Therefore credit growth has accelerated."

RGE Rachel Ziemba on Commodities Correction in 2010

Commodities Market Could Correct in 2010


There is a risk of a deeper correction in the commodities market in 2010, warns Rachel Ziemba, senior analyst at RGE Roubini Global Economics. She tells CNBC's Amanda Drury & Sri Jegarajah what will trigger this correction.


Thursday, January 21, 2010

Roubini Risk of Double Dip Recession Low

"I am Doctor Realist not Doctor Doom" says Nouriel Roubini

The risk of a double dip is low, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at RGE Roubini Global Economics, speaking to CNBC's Martin Soong and Sri Jegarajah.


Roubini China Needs to Constrain Economic Monster

"The Chinese realize they unleashed a bit of a monster," he said. "They have to constrain it." Roubini Says "Given the level of interest rates is very low in China and the economy is growing now closer to 9%-10%, you need direct credit controls," said Roubini. "China decided a year ago to repeg to the U.S. dollar , therefore it had to intervene aggressively to essentially prevent the appreciation from occurring. All this intervention has only been partially sterilized. Therefore credit growth has accelerated." He added

Global Economy to Weaken: Roubini

The global economic recovery will be below trend for the next couple of years, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics. He tells Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors, CNBC's Martin Soong and Amanda Drury the weakening of the economy is due to the labour market and the credit crunch.

Roubini global rally in stocks may end in the second half of the year

Nouriel Roubini
By Lim Le-Min and Shamim Adam
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- A global rally in stocks may end in the second half of the year amid a muted recovery in the world’s largest economies and as deflationary pressures limit gains in corporate earnings, Nouriel Roubini said.
Failure to restrain asset-price bubbles in emerging markets, fueled by loose monetary policies in the U.S. and around the world, may also cause an “unraveling and a significant correction of asset prices which will be damaging to global and regional economic growth,” Roubini, the Harvard- schooled New York University professor who in 2006 foresaw the financial crisis, said in Hong Kong today.
Read Article >>>>

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Nouriel Roubini On The Massive Debts Of The Rich Nations

Nouriel Roubini

The Risky Rich

by Nouriel Roubini


Today Nouriel Roubini points a finger at some of the worst offenders:

“Indeed, rating-agency downgrades, a widening of sovereign spreads, and failed public-debt auctions in countries like the United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, and Spain provided a stark reminder last year that unless advanced economies begin to put their fiscal houses in order, investors, bond-market vigilantes, and rating agencies may turn from friend to foe. The severe recession, combined with the financial crisis during 2008-2009, worsened developed countries’ fiscal positions, owing to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues, and backstopping and ring-fencing of their financial sectors.

Read Full Article


Friday, January 15, 2010

Roubini warns about The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

Several Advanced Economies Risk Suffering A Sovereign Debt Crisis, Say Nouriel Roubini And Arpitha Bykere


Nouriel Roubini
In an article today on Forbes.com Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere wrote the following about the danger of The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis :

"The severe recession, combined with a financial crisis during 2008-09, worsened the fiscal positions of developed countries due to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues and support to the financial sector. The impact was greater in countries that had a history of structural fiscal problems, maintained loose fiscal policies and ignored fiscal reforms during the boom years. Going forward, a weak economic recovery and an aging population is likely to increase the debt burden of many advanced economies, including the U.S., Britain, Japan and several eurozone countries."

Read the whole story: forbes.com

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Speaker at The Asian Financial Forum AFF 2010 in Hong Kong

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business will be speaking at the Asian Financial Forum 2010 on 20 - 21 January 2010 (Wed - Thur) in Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center , this year the ropic will be Asia in the New Economic Order . More than 1,500 financial players, business leaders and journalists from 31 countries and regions have already registered the official AFF site reports , and that The registration for AFF 2010 is now closed due to overwhelming responses

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Roubini Forecasts an Anemic Recovery for 2010

Nouriel Roubini
Speaking at The IMCA New York Consultants Conference at the Grand Hyatt in Manhattan on Monday, Economist Nouriel Roubini , professor of economics at the Stern School of Business NYU and chairman of Roubini Global Economics RGE told investment professionals that the United States can expect an Anemic recovery in 2010, with a slowdown in the second half. He predicts the economic growth to be in the range of 3 percent for the first six months, and about 1 to 1.5 in the second half of the year reports the registeredrep.com

Monday, January 11, 2010

Roubini Canada avoided The financial Crisis , but recovery lags

Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini, the professor at the Stern Business School at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics (RGE), wrote about Canadian economic recovery in his weekly column for Forbes :
"Canada's financial strength and timely monetary easing resulted in a milder recession (the net output loss was lower than in the previous postwar recessions), but its recovery has been sluggish. Like much of the global economy, Canada exited recession in mid-2009 and has good momentum going into 2010. But the recovery could continue to be slow with below-potential growth as the external sector drags and the stimulus wanes. Moreover, Canada's twin surpluses (fiscal and current account) have shifted to a deficit. Given our concerns about the strength of the U.S. and G3 recovery, Canada's private investment may also be slow to recover."

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Nouriel Roubini vs Jim Cramer

Roubini Talks about CNBC's Jim Cramer and Cramer Responds to NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini
Mad Money host tells Squawk on the Street viewers he regards the attack as a badge of honor.



Friday, January 8, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Backs Geithner Plan: NY Daily News

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini Geithner's new toxic asset plan is a serious step : NY Daily News


New York Daily News:

For the economy to be viable, the financial system must be healthy. For this to occur, the system needs to be cleansed of its poorly performing loans and so-called toxic securities backed by loans. This way, once creditworthy institutions and individuals come to the market looking for capital to borrow, financial firms will be in a position to lend them money.

Secretary Timothy Geithner's new toxic asset plan is a serious step in the right direction in that it creates a public-private partnership to buy the troubled assets of financial firms - in other words, to do the necessary cleansing. Up until now, with all the government bailouts, the financial system has been barely treading water. With this plan, it will still be a hard swim, but, at least, there is a path to shore.


Read Full story : New York Daily News>>>

Unemployment is still at 10% Nouriel Roubini

Despite the census by the government and the hiring of around 1 million Americans Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics said it could be 2014 or 2015 before unemployment in the United States falls back to its “natural” level of 5 per cent.
Via The Globeandmail

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Charlie Rose - Nouriel Roubini 2008

Nouriel Roubini discuses what Americans can expect to see over the next few months due to the financial crisis.


Monday, January 4, 2010

Nouriel Roubini There Is a Global Deflationary Risk




Central bankers around the world are pulling out all the stops in order to combat a severe economic downturn that threatens to get even worse."There is a global deflationary risk," says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor. "That's what central bankers are worried about."In Europe today, the ECB and Bank of England slashed rates by greater than expected levels. Meanwhile, the Fed and Bank of Japan are taking "unorthodox actions" to pump liquidity into their economies. Both central banks are engaged in "quantitative easing," meaning rates are effectively zero regardless of what the official policy is."The Fed is trying to preemptively avoid a deflation trap [which] is very dangerous," Roubini says. "Whether they'll be successful or not, I don't know."The problem, he says, is there's going to be a "severe recession" both in the U.S. and globally in 2009. That means falling demand for goods and increased slack in the labor markets. That will put further downward pressure on prices and raise the risk of outright deflation, which is defined as: A persistent decline in general price levels, typically accompanied by a severe contraction in employment and economic output."It's hard to undo the structural factor" of falling demand meeting a supply glut of goods and services, he says, recommending the following policy actions to try and stem the deflationary tide:

A "huge" fiscal stimulus package: $500-$700B.
Recapitalize the banks faster, i.e., get TARP money distributed sooner.
Rather than focusing on mortgage rates, reduce the face value of debt owed by "insolvent homeowners" in order for them to be able to spend again and avoid a "tsunami of foreclosures." via youtube

Roubini Crude Oil unlikely to go back to $100 a barrel in 2010

Nouriel Roubini

The oil market still seems over-supplied, given ample inventories, an increase in OPEC and non-OPEC production, and high surplus capacity within OPEC. This supply, and a weak global economic recovery, could mute some of the pressure on the oil price. Fundamentals do not always drive prices–one might expect an oil price closer to $50-55 per barrel today–but they can be restraints.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to remain on hold–likely into 2011 in RGE’s view–global liquidity conditions should be supportive of oil and other commodities. Any pressures on the U.S. dollar could strengthen oil. The fundamental outlook, however, could restrain this upward pressure.

Muted Demand to Continue
The sharp fall in demand for oil in 2009 following a shallower decline in 2008 marked the first back-to-back oil and oil product demand declines in two decades. At the end of 2009, oil and product demand began to recover, but they remain well below 2006 and 2007 levels. The strong pace of growth in emerging market economies, particularly in Asia, suggests EM fuel demand will be strong, only partly offsetting weak demand in OECD economies, making the global rebound in demand more muted than in 2004-2007.

Despite the auto industry-focused nature of the fiscal stimulus in many countries–especially China–the incentive to buy more fuel-efficient cars suggests the growth in oil product demand will continue to be more muted than this buying surge would indicate. Moreover, with prices tied more closely to global market prices, more of a price increase would be passed on to the consumers in China. Other Asian countries have likewise poked holes in their subsidy regimes. Finally, the addition of refinery capacity in the Middle East and Asia removes one price pressure as the chance of product shortages are lower.
via munknee.com
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