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Monday, May 31, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on Nassim Taleb and The Black Swans

Roubini on Nassim Taleb and Black Swans
Roubini: My friend Nassim Taleb popularized the concept of “Black Swans,” those economic and financial events that are sudden, unexpected and unpredictable. But if you look at financial crises through history – and the earliest is the Tulipmania in the Netherlands in the 17th Century – you see a pattern that is highly regular and predictable: An asset bubble – often in real estate or in stock markets or in a new industry – leads to financial euphoria, excessive risk taking, an accumulation of excessive debt and leverage. So the signposts of this phase — asset boom and bubble, followed by the eventual bust and crash — are highly predictable if one looks at the economic and financial indicators that show the build-up of such excesses. Thus, financial boom and bust are predictable white swan events, not unpredictable and random black swans. Financial crises have repeatedly occurred for hundreds of years and they follow quite regular pattern. That is why my book is about “crisis economics”, a phenomenon that is becoming more of a rule than an exception. Financial crises that should have occurred once in 100 years now occur more frequently and with greater virulence than in the past; and their economic, fiscal, financial and social costs are rising.

The trouble is that in the bubble phase nearly everyone, the exception being a few critical analysts, is swept in a delusional bubble mania of irrational euphoria: households, financial institutions, investors, governments, spinmeisters all of whom profit from the bubble, including Ponzi-schemers who concoct their houses of cards and financial con games. So, in each bubble there are cranks who argue that this time is different and that the bubble is driven by a fundamental brave new world of ever rising growth and profits. Then, when the boom and bubble turns into a bust and crash, a reality check occurs and financial depression sets in.
read the full interview >>>>

Nouriel Roubini on the Euro and The Eurozone

Economist Nouriel Roubini explains his view of the Euro Zone.

Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists to spot the sub-prime crisis coming

Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists to spot the sub-prime crisis coming
Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists to spot the sub-prime crisis coming, says in his new book, Crisis Economics (with Stephen Mihm, published by Allen Lane), that it is precisely because the downturn has been handled more deftly this time that the impetus for deep, structural reform has faltered. "Had policymakers failed to arrest the crisis, as they failed during the Depression, the calls for reform today would be deafening: there's nothing like ubiquitous breadlines and 25% unemployment to focus the minds of legislators."
via www.guardian.co.uk

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Sean Hannity Interviews Nouriel Roubini On The Economy - 5-11-2010

May 28, 2010Sean Hannity Interviews Nuriel Roubini On Economy - 5-11-2010

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Exclusive: No over-regulation of the financial markets

May 28, 2010Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini in an exclusive interview with the german trading television (DAF): "No over-regulation of the financial markets". His perspective: recession, double dip, economy, wall street, global markets, financial crisis. His conclusion is that "we must find the balance".


Friday, May 28, 2010

Steve Keen : Debt and Financial Instability

Lecture by Steve Keen refuting mainstream economics.Thanks to Nick from Slow TV for letting me post the lecture.



Roubini: The Economic recovery will be anemic

Nouriel Roubini speaks at the 2010 Financial Forum in Bucharest. http://www.newschannel.ro

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Roubini: States with large budget deficits and the need for fiscal austerity reforms

Nouriel Roubini, speech at the Central South-East European financial forum in Romania




States facing high budget deficits require fiscal austerity, but structural reforms, market-oriented, because this could make a difference and could absorb short-term volatility, said Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the University New York Financial Forum 2010 today.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Arnab Das : Emerging markets not immune to EU crisis

Emerging markets not immune to EU crisis: Roubini Global


May 25, 2010 — In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Arnab Das, Managing Director (Market Research and Strategy) at Roubini Global Economics, spoke about concerns arising out of Spain and the road ahead for global markets.


Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on Predicting Financial Crisis

Nouriel Roubini on Government Bailouts



May 24, 2010
"Crisis Economics" author Dr. Nouriel Roubini on how he was able to see the signs of the financial crisis.
"Crisis Economics" author Dr. Nouriel Roubini on the mounting government debt in part due to the bailouts.

Arnab Das Says Euro-Zone Crisis Will Stall China, U.S. Growth

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Arnab Das, head of global markets research at Roubini Global Economics, talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about the European financial crisis and its impact on growth in the U.S. and China. Das also discusses the turmoil within Spain's banking system. (Source: Bloomberg)


Monday, May 24, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on The Bill Maher May 21, 2010

Roubini : when there is a bubble everybody lives in a bubble , most of the people are using their home as an ATM machine


Economist Nouriel Roubini on the Bill Maher from L.A.
Doctor Doom says : the legendary investor Marc Faber calls himself doctor doom gloom and boom so compared to him I am just doctor Doom , no apart from the joke I think the question is ...., it is not a question of being optimistic or pessimistic it's just being realistic about what happens and in some sense actually it is not much worse than I predicted , you know in 2006 when I predicted Home prices will fall 20% they fall 30% the home sales fell by 80% instead of the 50% I predicted so I was too optimistic not too pessimistic ...when there is a bubble everybody lives in a bubble... the consumers were living beyond their means ...most of the people are using their home as an ATM machine..

Arnab Das Sees Strong Chance of Greece Restructuring Debt

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Arnab Das, head of global markets research at Roubini Global Economics, talks with Bloomberg's Andrea Catherwood about the European debt crisis. Das, speaking in London, also discusses U.S. financial regulation and the outlook for the euro.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Roubini: Greek crisis is the tip of an iceberg

Roubini: Greek crisis is the tip of an iceberg

interview with BBC radio broadcast 18 May 2010



NYU Stern school Professor Nouriel Roubini, who has earned the nickname Dr doom after accurately predicting the credit crunch, discusses with BBC radio broadcast whether Europe will ever recover from its economic crisis. "The crisis is not over," NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini said in an interview with BBC radio broadcast last week. "What we're facing right now in the Eurozone is a second stage of a typical financial crisis."
"There's a question mark whether we can be confident the government is going to be strong enough to do the fiscal austerity," Roubini said.
click here to listen to the interview >>>

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Steve Keen on aljazeera 20 May 2010

Steve Keen is an Associate Professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. He identifies as post-Keynesian, criticizing both modern neoclassical economics and (some of) Marxian economics as inconsistent, unscientific and empirically unsupported. The major influences on Keen's thinking about economics include Hyman Minsky, Piero Sraffa and Joseph Alois Schumpeter. His recent work mostly concentrates on mathematical modeling and simulation of financial instability.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Roubini Sees double dip recession risk in Eurozone

May 21, 2010 — US economist Nouriel Roubini sees risk of double dip recession in some parts of the globe.^M

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Roubini Interview with Fortune

Nouriel Roubini a reknowned economist ,professopr of economics at NYU school of Business , founder of RGE Roubini Global economics ,LLC , an economic analysis and consultancy firm , Roubini co-authored "bailouts or Bail-ins ?" and "Crisis Economics : a Crash Course in the Future of Finance"

Nouriel Roubini on Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance - Book TV

Roubini : Inflation is a tax on public Debt

May 14, 2010 — The NYU economics professor examines examples of previous financial problems in comparison to current difficulties facing Greece, the United States, and the rest of the world. This is a clip of a program that will appear on Book TV soon.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Roubini There is a risk of Inflation in UK

Nouriel Roubini, 'DR. DOOM' 18-May-2010

Nouriel Roubini : inflation can be a way of reducing the real value of public debt , but it is dangerouse because if it goes out of hand then it'll go higher it will lead to currency crash for there is collateral damage from using the inflation tax



Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Roubini on The European Debt Relief

Nouriel Roubini Discusses European Debt Relief

May 18, 2010Bloomberg — May 18, 2010 — May 18 (Bloomberg) -- New York University professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg's Margaret Brennan about Europe's debt crisis and the outlook for the sovereign relief package from the European Union. (This is an excerpt of the full interview.)


Monday, May 17, 2010

Roubini The Euro will fall

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Nouriel Roubini, author of Crisis Economics, says the European bailout plan may strengthen the European Union in the short run, but the plan will not work unless the member countries show resolve.


Sunday, May 16, 2010

Nassim Taleb Says Focus on Specific Trades in Selloff Misguided

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, a professor at New York University and author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about the May 6 stock market selloff and his investment strategy. Taleb also discusses the drivers for the financial crisis, the U.S. economy and the performance of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nassim Taleb Says Focus on Specific Trades in Selloff Misguided

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, a professor at New York University and author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about the May 6 stock market selloff and his investment strategy. Taleb also discusses the drivers for the financial crisis, the U.S. economy and the performance of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini: New Book on Crisis Economics

May 12, 2010Roubini discusses the increased frequency and severity of economic crises around the world.





Saturday, May 15, 2010

Roubini Wall Street still engaging in dangerous behavior

Nouriel "Doctor Doom" Roubini with ABC News Radio May 14 2010

May 14, 2010NYU Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini Doctor Doom talks to ABC News Radio Correspondent Richard Davies on the future of the economy and financial system.





Friday, May 14, 2010

Nouriel Roubini: US Could See a New Crisis Soon

Nouriel Roubini discusses possible consequences of current US economic policy.


Thursday, May 13, 2010

Roubini: EU Greece Bailout only a Band Aid

Nouriel Roubini on CNN Money May 12, 2010



May 12, 2010
Roubini has little confidence that the EU bailout of Greece will ulitimately solve its sovereign debt problems.



Nouriel Roubini on Cavuto Fox Business News May 12, 2010

Nouriel Roubini: Greece is The Tip of the Iceberg

Nouriel Roubini : In my view what's happening in Greece is just the tip of an iceberg , ...we socialized these private losses , now we have large budget deficits in Europe in Japan in the United States the bond market vigilantes are waking up in Greece in Portugal in Spain at some point they are going to wake up in UK in Japan in the United States we are running a trillion and half deficit it is obviously over time not sustainable ....
America's debt is unsustainable says Nouriel Roubini , for now the FED can keep interest rates at Zero and the rest of the world is financing us but this situation cannot last forever

May 12, 2010
NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini on how to prevent the debt crisis in Greece from happening in the U.S.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Roubini China Risks Significant Economic Slowdown

Roubini Says China Risks `Significant' Economic Slowdown

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- New York University professor Nouriel Roubini talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li about the outlook for China's economy, and risks of an asset "bubble" developing in the country. Roubini, speaking from New York, also discusses the $1 trillion European loan package to stop the sovereign debt crisis, and the debate over financial regulatory overhaul. (Source: Bloomberg)


Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Roubini on The $1 Trillion EU rescue Package to Greece

Roubini Discusses $1 Trillion European Loan Package





Nouriel Roubini : The IMF is expecting three more years of recession in Greece most likely you will have recession in Spain in Portugal in Italy and the question is political again : can you afford have several years of recession and deflation there may be at some point a backlash against it three of these countries have also lost competitiveness in the last few years , they are losing market shares to China and Asia because their exports are labor intensive then for a decade their wages are growing faster than the productivity , and the final nail in the coffin was the appreciation of the Euro between 2000 and 2008 , so even if they stabilize their public debt how are they going to reduce their larger currency deficit..., it is going to be ugly in terms of fiscal austerity in terms of structural forms in terms of anemic growth if not recession therefore there is money on the table but it is all conditional on doing very painful sacrifices , I feel that some countries like Greece are not going to be able to do it , that eventually they are going to have a restructuring of public debt .....
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the $1 trillion European loan package to help stop the sovereign-debt crisis. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Monday, May 10, 2010

Roubini Sees risk of contagion spreading to US

Nouriel Roubini on the Greece bailout


May 09, 2010 — European Union ministers agree to emergency aid worth 500 billion euro to prevent Greece's debt crisis causing turmoil in other euro zone states.



Sunday, May 9, 2010

Roubini : it will be at an anemic recovery and at worse a Double Dip Recovery

Nouriel Roubini: Rapid economic recovery unlikely


Credit markets have recovered, although they still reflect massive government financial intervention. The financial panic of 2008 and 2009 has passed, though now bank failures are notably increasing. The net worth of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is dropping, and estimates for its deficit are growing, but its obligations are ultimately U.S. Treasury obligations. Average house prices seem to be stabilizing, but commercial real estate prices are dropping. Huge losses from the deflation of the great twenty-first-century bubble have been recognized or realized, and though more remain, financial markets have regained their appetite for risk.

At this event, our expert Deflating Bubble panel defined the lessons of the whole twenty-first-century financial experience and made related recommendations for future financial policy. Speakers included AEI economists Desmond Lachman and John H. Makin; New York University professor of economics Nouriel Roubini; R. Christopher Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics; and Thomas Zimmerman, managing director at UBS Investment Bank. AEI resident fellow Alex J. Pollock moderated.


Saturday, May 8, 2010

China Runs $7B Trade Deficit

China Runs $7B Trade Deficit


RGE Roubini Global Economics Senior Analyst Rachel Ziemba Chinas trade deficit and its impact on efforts to pressure the country to revalue its currency.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Roubini on The Dow plunge and massive sell-offs

Discussing yesterday's stock plunge, with Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank; James Paulsen, Wells Capital Mgmt.; and Nouriel Roubini, RGEMonitor.com
Discussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, RGEmonitor.com.























Roubini Global Economics Arnab Das Sees signs of overheating in India

The Indian markets have been trading in the red for the past few days on concerns that the European debt crisis is spreading and monetary tightening by China.

Roubini on The Dow Crash and Greece Crisis

Nouriel Roubini we are facing serious sovereign debt problem because we have socialized many of the private losses




May 06, 2010 — RGE Economist Nouriel Roubini aka Dr Doom believes Greece is the first symptom of a larger problem
Nouriel Roubini :"My interpretation is that we are at the next stage of this global financial crisis , the first stage was driven by aggressive borrowing and accumulation of debt in the private sector households and financial institutions and now we decided to socialize many of these private losses and there is a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with budget deficit of the order 10% of the GDP and doubling of public debt in most advanced economies "
Roubini"In my view Greece is insolvent their public debt is 120% of GDP their bufget deficit 13.6% of GDP , there is no country cando such a fiscal adjustment to reduce the debt to sustainable level , so I propose that Greece should be restructured there have been episodes of restructuring of public debt in a number of emerging market economies in the last decade , it can be done , instead of using official support to waste money to try to allow some people the exit it's better to restructure this debt it is better to restructure the debt..."

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Roubini on the Forex Market

Roubini on the Forex Market
"The currency markets are really very unpredictable. The truth is that America, Europe and Japan are all three in a recession, then logically the three currencies should go down, which is clearly impossible. The real game is on rate differentials, the so-called carry trades, and then on speculation that entails. In recent months there had been a rally of the dollar against the euro, which if we were unreasonable because America was worse than Europe. Then the euro has recovered just because America was spreading the brand of "zero interest rate". But I think the dollar will soon return to reinforce the strong demand for assets denominated in dollars caused by the issuance of U.S. securities to finance the many planned interventions. Unless Europe does not respond with massive emissions of Eurobonds. Then there is Japan, which has been in deep crisis for much longer than the West: Well, the yen was paradoxically strong for months against the dollar, but now I think that even here the situation is in better balance. You see how complicated it is ? " Nouriel Roubini interviewed by Arianna Editrice

Monday, May 3, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : Bocconi University conference in Milan

Rules, more flexibility and involvement of countries emerging from crisis, This is the only way to exit the crisis according to the one who foresaw it coming before anybody else : the economist Nouriel Roubini who is interviewed during a conference at Bocconi University in Milan.

Intervista a Nouriel Roubini from Focus.it Video on Vimeo.

Sunday, May 2, 2010

RGE Arnab Das on Greece The Eurozone and the domino effect

"The crisis in Greece will be exacerbated in the short and the spread will increase with the Bund. The market will continue to test the commitment greek, when there will be full of serious Athens, the spreads decrease. In the background there is another problem: the problem of competitiveness. In recent years the local economy has not grown much and has not been made structural reforms to ensure flexibility in the economy, necessary since exchange rates are fixed. Even Ireland is in crisis, but at least for a decade had grown more in the world. You should also consider Germany, after reunification has faced deflation painful but necessary. Today can not say to Greece: we grant you a discount. "Arnab Das on the Italian Paper Il Giornale
"Monetary union does not include an exit strategy. If Greece were to leave, the debt should rename the new drachma rates skyrocketing. There would be chaos. And then a domino effect: other countries end up under pressure. Would risk a crisis similar to that of Lehman. But to Athens for the euro is just one battle, the war is not yet won. "
"History shows that monetary union is no life without political unity and tax. It may be that the euro is the exception, but only if countries continue to meet Maastricht. Even California is bankrupt, and California weigh much more than Greece, but is not a sovereign state and the federal government can relieve it by transferring funds. The Eurozone rather not have this flexibility. So the crisis in Greece is highlighting the limits of the euro. "


Source Il Giornale
NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG