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Saturday, July 31, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Economic Outlook for the second half of the year

Roubini: Even If We Don't Double Dip Immediately, We're Still At Risk Of One

Nouriel Roubini : I am expecting the economic growth in the second half of the year to be 1.5 per cent conditional that it has been correct actually everything from job to deficit the housing market , bank losses are actually going to look worse that they are right now...etc...
What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Double-dip days ahead

The global economy, artificially boosted since the recession of 2008-2009 by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial bailouts, is headed towards a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes. Worse yet, the fundamental excesses that fueled the crisis – too much debt and leverage in the private sector (households, banks and other financial institutions, and even much of the corporate sector) – have not been addressed.
Nouriel Roubini via PBS.org


Nouriel Roubini
(born on March 29, 1959) is the Chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics an economic consultancy firm , professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University , and co-author of the book Crisis Economics. After receiving BA in political economics at Bocconi University and doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he began academic research and policy making by teaching at Yale while also spending time at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early studies focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who is now Treasury Secretary.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Nassim Taleb : The government debt a pure Ponzi scheme

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb : The massive one is government deficits. As an analogy: You often have planes landing two hours late. In some cases, when you have volcanos, you can land two or three weeks late. How often have you landed two hours early? Never. It's the same with deficits. The errors tend to go one way rather than the other.The problem is getting runaway. It's becoming a pure Ponzi scheme. It's very nonlinear: You need more and more debt just to stay where you are. And what broke [convicted financier Bernard] Madoff is going to break governments. They need to find new suckers all the time. And unfortunately the world has run out of suckers.
via The Los Angeles Times

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini Plays Dr. Hashimi In Wall Street 2 Movie

Nouriel Roubini is back to Hollywood his time to play a role in the upcoming Wall Street 2 movie the character he will be playing is called "Dr. Hashimi." but it is based off his real life as "Dr. Doom," the nickname that the financial media gave him because he was one of the few who predicted the recent financial crisis.This is not the first time that Nouriel Roubini plays a role in Hollywood movies ...

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Roubini : European markets outlook worse than stress test result

Nouriel Roubini of RGE Roubini Global Economics said that the US GDP is likely to see a V-shaped recovery, reports CNBC-TV18. However he warned that the second half of the year is going to be worse."The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk were not realistic enough in my view especially on sovereign risk" said. Nouriel Roubini,most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default Roubini explains and there is a question on how you measure also things that have not been market down like toxic assets ...the strength of the Euro is more likely the weakness of the dollar , until a month ago the dollar looked like less ugly than the Euro due to the problems in the Eurozone stress test sovereign default risk risk of a double dip risk of the break-up of the monetary union , last month the month the numbers have come out worse for the United States in terms of macroeconomic data ....“Certainly the second half of the year has to be worse. Less than 2% in second quarter is not a recession, but everything is worse. It feels like a recession.”
“More of their government debt is held to maturity rather than trading book and therefore they need not consider their results,”“Like in the US case, if you make assumptions that the three key factors , growth unemployment and home price deflation are too rosy, then u can get at the macro level, losses that are smaller than otherwise,”

Monday, July 26, 2010

Roubini : Euro Stress Tests not stressful enough

Roubini : The strength of the Euro is more like the weakness of the Dollar

"The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk were not realistic enough in my view especially on sovereign risk" said. Nouriel Roubini,most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default Roubini explains and there is a question on how you measure also things that have not been market down like toxic assets ...the strength of the Euro is more likely the weakness of the dollar , until a month ago the dollar looked like less ugly than the Euro due to the problems in the Eurozone stress test sovereign default risk risk of a double dip risk of the break-up of the monetary union , last month the month the numbers have come out worse for the United States in terms of macroeconomic data ....

Nassim Taleb Investments Strategy

interview with Nassim Taleb, bestselling author of "The Black Swan" and "Fooled By Randomness"

Roubini : There is a global deflationary risk

”There is a global deflationary risk,” says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor. “That’s what central bankers are worried about.”.”The Fed is trying to preemptively avoid a deflation trap [which] is very dangerous,” Roubini says. “Whether they’ll be successful or not, I don’t know.”The problem, he says, is there’s going to be a “severe recession”

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on Bankers bailouts

Nouriel Roubini "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "

Friday, July 23, 2010

Nassim Taleb at the Invest Leadership Summit in South Africa 11th August 2010

Nassim Taleb, who will be visiting South Africa for the Discovery Invest Leadership Summit on August 11th
Invest Leadership Summit will be held at the Sandton Convention Centre on the 11th August 2010

Thursday, July 22, 2010

NOURIEL ROUBINI ON BLOOMBERG RADIO JULY 14, 2010

NOURIEL ROUBINI: One of the important point I make is that the overspending countries now have to retrench, spend less, consume less, import less. And therefore, the over saving country like China, Germany, Japan, has to do their share of the global economy by saving less and spending more. Otherwise, in a world that is flush with a glass of capacity that will cover a global accurate demand is going to be weaker than otherwise.

For China, that means two things. It means they should let the RMB appreciate at a much faster rate. What they've announced a few weeks ago is totally symbolic. They've done very little. The rate of crawl up over there is going to be too little to make any difference. And secondly, they should accelerate the kind of structural reform that reduce the savings rate and increased the consumption rate.

Again, those things are going to take years to implement, but they're not even doing the basic background to achieve that type of a consumer society. So unfortunately, my answer is China is not doing its share of the global rebalancing.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Roubini Global Economics: Dont Jump into Gold bandwagon

"The concerns propelling the price of gold specifically are very real and should not be ignored. But is now the time for investors to jump the gold bandwagon? We wouldn’t encourage it," Roubini Global Economics said
via CNBC.com

Roubini : Private sector deleveraging has barely begun

The global economy is headed toward a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes, says economist Nouriel Roubini.
“Private sector deleveraging has barely begun,”
“Moreover, there is now massive re-leveraging of the public sector in advanced economies, with huge budget deficits and public-debt accumulation driven by automatic stabilizers, countercyclical Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and the immense costs of socializing the financial system's losses.”
Roubini sees the utlook for the US mediocre but the Eurozone is even worse
in todayonline.com

Roubini : the global slowdown will worsen in the second half of this year as stimulus measures wane and austerity programs take hold

Roubini says Slowdown to Worsen in Second Half, U.S. Better Than Euro Zone
in Bloomberg

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : speaker at the Summer Institute lecture series at the Jewish Center of the Hamptons.

Nouriel gave his standard talk: The U.S. is entering either a "U" (at best) or a "W" (at worst), while over there, he estimates 0% growth in the eurozone over the next 12 months.

Reduced fiscal and monetary stimuli, the cessation of temporary benefits (inventory build, Cash for Clunkers, homebuyer's tax credit, etc.) and diminished confidence (consumer and corporate) spell subpar growth (1.5% estimated second-half domestic growth). Deflationary pressures remain the mainstay in the aftermath of the last economic and credit cycle and in the face of tax policy (higher January 2011) and the obliteration of the shadow-banking system and securitization markets.
in thestreet.com
read full story >>>

Monday, July 19, 2010

Rubini : Even China is showing signs of a slowdown

Even China is showing signs of a slowdown, owing to the government's attempts to control economic overheating. The slowdown in advanced economies, together with a weaker euro, will further dent Chinese growth, bringing its 11-per-cent-plus growth rate towards 7 per cent by the end of this year.
This is bad news for export growth in the rest of Asia and among commodity-rich countries, which increasingly rely on Chinese imports. An important victim will be Japan, where anaemic real income growth is depressing domestic demand and exports to China sustain what little growth there is. Japan also suffers from low potential growth, owing to a lack of structural reforms and weak and ineffective governments (four prime ministers in four years), a large stock of public debt, unfavourable demographic trends and a strong yen that gets stronger during bouts of global risk aversion.
in Today in Singapore. todayonline.com

Friday, July 16, 2010

Roubini keynote speaker at the World Capital Markets Symposium 2010 Kuala Lumpur

Dr. Nouriel Roubini will be a keynote speaker at The second edition of The World Capital Markets Symposium (WCMS), to be hosted by the Securities Commission Malaysia on 27-28 September 2010 in Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Other confirmed keynote speakers at the Symposium include top Indian economic policymaker Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia
in abnnewswire.net

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Roubini : Obama Should Address Nation as Adults

“We have to recognize that Americans are adults. Then we have to speak to them straightforward about the risks and challenges that we have, rather than kicking the can down the road.”

Source Bloomberg Radio

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Niall Ferguson Greece in Death Spiral Europe Still in Deep, Deep Trouble

Niall Ferguson : The whole (EU) thing will fall apart


Unlike the US dollar , the Euro is a a single currency based on a monetary union without a fiscal union , says Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson , when the Germans were asked early this year to bailout the Greeks they said No why should we , so there is no mechanism to transfer the wealth from the wealthier states in the EU to the poorest ones ....Harvard professor Niall Ferguson who just returned from Athens Greece says that Europe has still not dealt sufficiently with what started the euro crisis -- Greece. Even after a trillion-dollar bailout from the ECB, IMF and European countries its problem is completely still unresolved."Greek economy is contracting at a really high rate, there's no sign of recovery. If anything, it’s a death spiral." Niall Ferguson says

Monday, July 12, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on South Korea rate hikes

"Given revival of capital inflows in June, rising inflationary pressures and risks from negative real interest rates, South Korea will hike rates by another 50 basis points in the third quarter,"
"This will be followed by a 25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter, unless domestic and global growth slow more than expected or there's a repeat of a May-like sell-off. Rates will go up by at least 75 basis points in 2011,"
in The Korea Times 07-11-2010

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Saw it coming before anybody else

NOURIEL ROUBINI: Professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business; chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm; former senior economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Clinton
At the height of the housing boom, no one was predicting an economic collapse with more fervor than Nouriel "Doctor Doom" Roubini. As the crisis kept deepening, he kept predicting it would get worse, and kept being proved right.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, speaks about risk and robustness.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, speaks about risk and robustness.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Holiday Tour in crisis-hit countries

FT : Where are you going on holiday this year?

Roubini : Recently I have lived like the George Clooney character in Up in the Air (a film I watched on a plane). If I get a vacation this summer it would possibly be a tour of crisis-hit countries – if I am still allowed in them: Spain, Ireland, Iceland, Latvia, Greece and, maybe, the oil spill-ridden US Gulf Coast.

Source The Financial Times

Nouriel Roubini vs Ian Bremmer - is it Double dip recession or not

Roubini : Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Bail Out

"A year ago we had all these policy bullets," Roubini said. "We could push down rates to zero, we had (quantitative easing), we could do a budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP (or) backstop the financial system."
The financial reform bill is headed to the Senate later this month, with Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.

Arnab Das : US to Make Faster Recovery than Europe?

Jul. 7 2010 | The US economy is likely to make a faster recovery than the European economy, Arnab Das from Roubini Global Economics told CNBC Wednesday.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Roubini : No Double dip Recession

On Sunday, in Aix en Provence, at an annual conference of Le Cercle des économistes, a French group, Prof. Roubini said that a second contraction was not likely, either in the United States or in the world economy as a whole.

This sounded reassuring, in the wake of a column by the Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman in the New York Times, in which he likened the present to the 1930s and said, “The odds of a prolonged slump are rising by the day.” That column has stimulated a vast amount of worried commentary in the past few weeks.
Source The Globe and Mail

Saturday, July 3, 2010

The Russian Spies were targeting Nouriel Roubini ???

The 10 alleged Russian spies arrested in the US and in particular the redhead Anna ChapmRoubini Anna Chapmanan were probably targeting The hard partying Nouriel Roubini , Chapman and Roubini were Facebook friends , But, Roubini says he never had a “one to one conversation or meeting with her.” Roubini told ABCNEWS "I may have met her socially on one or two occasions in a large party (not at my place) and never had a one to one conversation or meeting with her," Roubini who is professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School is also the former senior economist for international affairs with the White House Council of Economic Advisors..Anna Chapman's facebook profile is still up

to this very moment www.facebook.com/chapmananya

Niall Ferguson vs Paul Krugman

Austerity vs Stimulus

Niall Ferguson,Professor at Harvard University and Author of Ascent Of Money & High Financier says Paul Krugman's idea that more spending will help the US economy is 'nuts'.Paul Krugman Economic Nobel prize said early this week "we are now I fear in the early stages of a third depression"

Nouriel Roubini Crisis Economics on The Kudlow Report Jun. 28 2010

Discussing whether the recession is headed for a double-dip, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Niall Ferguson vs Nouriel Roubini

Niall Ferguson Nervous About European Banks


"I've been nervous about European banks for quite a long time," Niall Ferguson, Harvard University professor, told CNBC Tuesday. The Greek crisis revealed the limits of European governments' ability to bail out banks if need be, Ferguson added.

Nassim Taleb vs Nouriel Roubini

The Black swans vs dr. Doom

NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG