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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Roubini sees more Doom for world economy and the Emerging markets in particular

Speaking at the World Capital Markets Conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, World Famous Professor of economics Dr. Nouriel Roubini clearly expressed his pessimism regarding world economy , in particular in the united states he did not rule out a repeat of a major economic recession , where he said about 300 banks have gone bankrupt over the past couple of years.
Nouriel Roubini stated that "nothing has changed fundamentally. When the regulatory reform was passed by the U.S. Congress, my view is too little, too late. We are already in a situation which is going to feel like a recession, (even) if we are not in one." Roubini sees more Doom to come for world economy and in particular for the Emerging markets

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Roubini : There is no full decoupling from the West

KUALA LUMPUR: The outlook for the global economy is not good, according to Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

There is a possibility of another recession in the world’s largest economy, the United States, he said and in Asia, in particular China, the world’s fastest growing economy, a derail in growth could be on the cards should there be continued weakness from Western economies.

“There is no full decoupling from the West,” he said at a panel discussion the symposium here yesterday.
read full story >>>

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Nassim Taleb, bullish on Canada

Taleb, a native of Lebanon who gave his speech in French to an audience of Quebec business people, said Canada’s fiscal situation makes the country a safer investment than its southern neighbor.

Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the country’s finance department said in March. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.

“I am bullish on Canada,” he told the audience. “I prefer Canada to the U.S. or even Europe.”

via businessweek.com>>>>

Monday, September 27, 2010

Roubini : Expect a Slow and Anemic Recovery

Sept. 26 2010 | Expect a "slow and anemic recovery" in the U.S. as the housing sector is still in a funk while the labor market is not improving, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics. He shares his thoughts on the economy, with CNBC's Martin Soong.

Roubini : 20% Yuan Rise Wont Hurt China

Sept. 26 2010 | A 20% appreciation of the yuan won't hurt China, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics, as he believes it won't happen all at once. He sheds light on the yuan, with CNBC's Martin Soong.

Nouriel Roubini : Japan outlook anemic

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said there’s a high probability of another recession in the U.S., with Japan’s outlook “anemic,” underscoring risks to the global recovery.

China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the U.S. and Europe, Roubini said in Kuala Lumpur today, where he is attending a conference. Second-quarter gross domestic product figures for the U.S. are likely to be revised lower after “awful” June real-estate numbers, he also said.

Austerity measures to cut debt in advanced nations are hurting consumer and business confidence, and households in some of the largest economies are holding back spending. Emerging economies may have to get used to relying on domestic demand in a period of subdued growth for developed countries, Roubini said.
read article >>>

Friday, September 24, 2010

Roubini : U.S. Payroll Tax Cut Would Spur Jobs

The U.S. government should use a temporary reduction in payroll taxes to boost employment, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“Firms are sitting on cash, but they are perceiving labor costs as being too high,” Roubini, 52, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “We have to reduce labor costs by reducing payroll taxes on a temporary basis for employers.”
read article >>>

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Arnab Das, More Stress Tests Required?

Sept. 10 2010 | Arnab Das, Managing Director of market strategy and research at Roubini Global Economics told CNBC he believes another round of bank stress tests will be required once the new Basel III guidelines are in place and banks are fully recapitalized. “The main uncertainty stems not from Basel III or the banks stress tests in the EU…but it is a question of where is the economy is going…We are facing some headwinds because this is not a conventional situation,” he said.

Nouriel Roubini : What America needs is a payroll tax cut,

It's time for the U.S. to roll out a payroll tax cut

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/22/AR2010092205721.html

Thursday, September 23, 2010

In the Sept. 17 Washington Forum piece "What America needs is a payroll tax cut," Nouriel Roubini correctly argued that broad income tax cuts and tax cuts encouraging capital investment do not necessarily benefit workers, and that a better approach is to reduce labor costs through a payroll tax cut.

Read Article >>>

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Stephen Roach, : Sluggish, Anemic U.S. Economic Recovery

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Roach also discusses U.S. stance on China's currency policy, and Lawrence Summers's departure from his job as director of the president’s National Economic Council. He talks from New York with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)


Monday, September 20, 2010

David Levy Sees 60% Chance of Another U.S. Recession

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Levy, speaking with Carol Massar, Matt Miller and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart," also discusses China's currency policy and the U.S. dollar. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : Stocks not yet pricing in economic reality

Roubini with Some Interesting Perspectives, 09/03/10

Roubini says the fiscal stimulus "becomes a drag" late this year and that monetary expansion won't be helpful given that there are already over $1 trillion in excess bank reserves, long term rates are low, and we're in a process of massive deleveraging. This is in sharp contrast to Bernanke's claims that the Fed still has some easing tools that can make a difference.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : things are going to get worse before they get better

Roubini : .... if you consider what happens, growth in second quarter was estimated originally at 2.4 then at 1.6. Given the new housing numbers are going to be revised to 1.2 that is already a growth recession and we know there is second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half because all the tailwinds to growth become headwinds. We have had the fiscal stimulus come to the economic growth, the base effects are gone, the inventory adjustments are gone and demand for homes has fallen. So we know the second half is going to be worse than the first half, you look at the data for July and August, they all suggest the slowdown and if you start from 1.2 in Q2, the third quarter looks lacking less than 1% and 1% maybe not technically a double dip recession but it is going to feel like recession because there is not going to be job creation.


Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Roubini, Zandi: Mortgage defaults as economic therapy

 source : http://voices.washingtonpost.com/political-economy/2010/09/default_on_your_mortgage_--_fo.html
By Howard Schneider

Top economists Nouriel Roubini and Mark Zandi took the stage at an International Monetary Fund conference room on Friday and presented a novel spin on the mortgage defaults still plaguing the home industry: they may be "therapeutic." Instead of letting the housing market continue to bleed out slowly for years to come, they should be accelerated so that home prices and household equity can start to recover, Roubini and Zandi said..
read article >>>

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Nouriel Roubini :Outlook for U.S. Economy

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the possibility of a double-dip recession, which he puts at 40 percent. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Who is Nassim Taleb ?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Christian Lebanese born in 1960 , a writer an essayist, scholar and former practitioner of mathematical finance a former Wall Street trader as well as a professor in risk engineering. He is best known as the author of the book 'The Black Swan' , a book about uncertainty, published in 2007 and completed in 2010.Taleb has had three distinct careers, built around what he calls "epistemic limitations and constraints": probability, uncertainty and the fragility of human knowledge, which he packaged as the theory of Black Swan Events. He holds an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania and Ph.D. in management science from the University of Paris (Dauphine). He speaks English, French, Arabic, Italian and Spanish and reads Greek, Latin and ancient Hebrew.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Doomsday warnings of US apocalypse gain ground

Nouriel Roubini Dr Doom
Economists peddling dire warnings that the world's number one economy is on the brink of collapse, amid high rates of unemployment and a spiraling public deficit, are flourishing here.

The guru of this doomsday line of thinking may be economist Nouriel Roubini, thrust into the forefront after predicting the chaos wrought by the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of the housing bubble.

"The US has run out of bullets," Roubini told an economic forum in Italy earlier this month. "Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession."
read article at www.breitbart.com >>>

Roubini : Emerging markets are doing well

Nouriel Roubini :"Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini : the dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc better investments than Gold

At a recent conference on the shores of Como Lake in Italy Nouriel Roubini told the European economic leaders that the “US has run out of bullets.” and that More quantitative easing (treasury bond purchases) by the FED is not going to make any difference . Roubini explained that in the case of a double dip recession, he believes that the dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc may be better investments than gold because the currencies are more liquid than the gold market.... Gold will be one of the preferred safe haven investments if the economy slips back into recession , "But in that situation, things like the dollar, the yen, the Swiss franc have more upside in a situation of rising risk aversion because they are much more liquid than the gold market", Roubini said.. Roubini believes that the price of Gold will rather stay at the current levels : "I believe that gold is going to trade around current level. There are two extreme events that lead to a spike in gold. One is inflation, but we have no inflation in advanced economies. If anything, there is a risk of deflation. The other event in which gold prices go up is the risk of a global financial meltdown, and that tail risk has been reduced because we backstopped the financial system." He explained

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on The Unemployment

Roubini : To manage unemployment, create 1,50,000 jobs every month

CNBC : You said we have to create 1,50,000 jobs every month?

Roubini : Yes, because they not only will increase the labor force but the 1,50,000 workers and by the way we have lost 8.4 million jobs during recession including our cut is another equivalent to three million jobs. So we will have to create 3,00,000 jobs every month for the next three years to bring back the level of employment to what it was before recession started but that is not enough because you are adding another 1,50,000 people to the labor force every month. So it is another 4.8 million people in the next three years. Nobody believes that given these conditions it is going to happen anytime soon.

If you don’t create jobs there is no labor increment, there is no consumption growth and the risk of a double dip becomes worse. Paradoxically in the last few quarters there has been a switch of distribution of income from labor to capital and to profits and these profits are not being reinvested and firms are not hiring workers. What can we do is difficult, we are in a process of deleveraging which is going to occur for a while. What can we do?—I would try to subsidize the demand for labor. I think instead of having an investment tax credit that boosts even more capex spending, this capital intensive, I would do a temporary cut in the payroll tax for two years. If you want to increase demand for labor rather than demand for capital, I would do a payroll tax rather than investment tax like Obama has suggested. So that would be something that reduces their labor cost for the producers.


Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Roubini and Bremmer: Financial Crisis Ended the Era of Free-Market Capitalism

The global financial crisis just might give those in the U.S. who advanced the idea of a "new world order" their wish – but not exactly in the way they wanted.

Ian Bremmer (right), president of Political Risk Research, and influential economist Nouriel Roubini lay out a compelling argument in the September Institutional Investor asserting that the free-market system of capitalism has been so damaged by the recent financial crisis that the U.S., Europe and Japan face a future in which they will struggle to keep pace with deep-pocketed developing nations like Brazil, India, China and Saudi Arabia. The result could be a world in which the Western political and economic dominance that existed prior to the crisis is gone, with little hope of coming back.

Read full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/bwlAqr

Friday, September 10, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on the Financial Crisis

Nouriel Roubini : "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "

Roubini : Growth to Halt in Second Half, Payroll-Tax Cut Needed

"It will be a vicious circle because the economy is going to surprise to the downside," Nouriel Roubini said. "The stock market is going to correct, credit spreads are going to widen. It will be a negative effect on consumption investment, the cost of capital is going to rise. And then you have another shock to the real economy, ending in a vicious cycle in which you can go off a cliff."
"That's already a growth recession," Roubini added. "The second half of the year is going to be worse than the first because all of the tailwinds to growth become headwinds."
via CNBC



Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Nouriel Roubini Sees Growing Risk of Double Dip Recession in the U.S.

NYU Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini believes that the risk of a double dip recession is growing in the United States. He assesses the probability of a double dip at 40%, the other scenario being subpar economic growth (under one percent), which feels like a recession in terms of high unemployment, growing public deficits, declining home values and increased losses among banks and financial institutions.
Read Full Article from the Huffington Post >

Niall Ferguson on U.S. Fiscal Policy, Tax Cuts, Economy

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Niall Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard University, talks about tax cuts, the U.S. economy and the Obama administration's fiscal policy. Ferguson speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (This is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on The Recession

“You don’t need negative economic growth to feel like a recession when growth is well below trend growth,” Nouriel Roubini said in a recent Financial Times interview.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : More than 400 US Banks Will Fail

"The big risk is that there will be a downturn in markets that could impact the bond, the equity and the credit markets," Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, told CNBC when discussing the economic outlook Friday.
"In the second half, fiscal policy becomes a headwind, no more cash for clunkers," Nouriel Roubini said. "The positive scenario is that growth will be below par." "The big risk is that there will be a downturn in markets that could impact the bond, the equity and the credit markets," he added.

“Job losses have been higher, the US jobs number will show that. There is no private sector jobs growth," he said. "Consumption is weak, exports are weak and housing is weak." "If there is no final sales and no final demand, companies will not invest," he explained
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust," Roubini said.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : We have a subprime financial system, not a subprime mortgage market

Nouriel Roubini :"Reckless people have deluded themselves that this was a subprime crisis. But we have problems with credit-card debt, student-loan debt, auto loans, commercial real estate loans, home-equity loans, corporate debt and loans that financed leveraged buyouts… We have a subprime financial system, not a subprime mortgage market. - "

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Nouriel Roubini on Market Risks, Economy

sept 3 2010 : "The big risk is that there will be a downturn in markets that could impact the bond, the equity and the credit markets," Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, told CNBC when discussing the economic outlook Friday.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Roubini: Stimulus Will Sap Second-Half U.S. Growth

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks about the outlook for the global economy and the possible impact of a double-dip recession or an increase in risk aversion on gold and currencies. He talks with Francine Lacqua in Cernobbio, Italy, on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : the stock markets could sharply correct,

“With growth at a stall speed of 1 percent or below, the stock markets could sharply correct, and credit spreads and interbank spreads widen while global risk aversion sharply increases,” “A negative feedback loop between the real economy and the risky asset prices can easily then tip the economy into a formal double dip,”
said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the global financial crisis in an Aug. 25 e-mail message to Bloomberg television
via Bloomberg.com

Rachel Ziemba : Rising Costs May Challenge China Exporters

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Rachel Ziemba, senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks about increased costs for manufacturers in China and the effect these may have on the country's global exports. She speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse."

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Roubini : China has no option but to accumulate dollar reserves

Nouriel Roubini :" In the short run, China has no option but to accumulate dollar reserves. Why? Because if they stop doing that, their currency would appreciate sharply while their exports are plunging. China cannot afford to let its currency appreciate any further, and to prevent the appreciation given their current and capital accounts they have to buy another $300 [billion] or $400 billion of reserves this year alone.

But I have seen a huge number of new initiatives in the last month after China expressed its worries that suggest they are pushing for the yuan to become an international currency and a reserve currency. . . .

They want to create a yuan zone in Asia. They are pushing for inter-Asian trade to be conducted in yuan. They are taking several steps that will lead their own currency to become an international currency. "
via The Washington post
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