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Monday, January 31, 2011

Roubini : Bond Vigilantes and the US

Jan. 31 2011 | Bond vigilantes are unlikely to attack the US soon, but if they do the trigger could be a fiscal crisis in the states, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Roubini on Egypt Contagion Risks

Jan. 31 2011 | Risks that protests will spread to other countries have increased but the current situation is so far not likely to lead to another recession, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : Jobs a Problem for years

Roubini's Video interview from Davos with CNN Money

Economist Nouriel Roubini says it will take years for the U.S. unemployment rate to return to pre-recession levels. Jan 26, 2011

Deloitte - Growth Track-Nassim Taleb

Deloitte Innovation Growth Track
Nassim Taleb, Professor Emeritus of the London Business School.
Socio-political and economic tsunamis of the future

Friday, January 28, 2011

Davos Open Forum 2011 - Euro Grounding?

Davos Open Forum 2011 - Euro Grounding?

http://www.weforum.org 27.01.2011
The euro should contribute to the stabilization of the EU national economies. However, in recent times, it has considerably lost value. Numerous euro-countries have been unable to keep to the criteria of stability and growth. High national debt brings them to the edge of insolvency. The European Monetary Union is endangered.

What effect does the euro crisis have on Switzerland? How should Switzerland contribute to finding a solution to the crisis? In the long term, how can the euro and the EU survive? What effect does the crisis have worldwide? Is international financial stability once more facing a collapse?

• Wilhelm Hankel, Professor of Economics, Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe University, Germany
• Patrick Odier, Senior Partner, Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch & Cie, Switzerland
• Dimitri Papalexopoulos, Managing Director, Titan Cement Company, Greece
Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, USA; Global Agenda Council on Fiscal Crises
• Jean-Claude Trichet, President, European Central Bank, Frankfurt

Moderated by
• Susanne F. Wille, Journalist, Swiss Television SF DRS, Switzerland

Thursday, January 27, 2011

What is the New Economic Reality? - Davos 2011

Davos Annual Meeting 2011 - What Is the New Economic Reality?



http://www.weforum.org 26.01.2011
The notion of a "new normal" is premature given the fragility of the global economy, but the elements of a new economic reality appear to now be in place.

In partnership with the World Economic Forum, Time magazine hosts this debate focusing on the elements of the new economic reality.

• Azim Premji, Chairman, Wipro, India
Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University, USA; Global Agenda Council on Fiscal Crises
• Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive Officer, WPP, United Kingdom
• James S. Turley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ernst & Young, USA
• Min Zhu, Special Adviser, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC; Member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum; Regional Agenda Council on China

Moderated by
• Michael J. Elliott, Editor, Time International, and Deputy Managing Editor, Time Magazine, USA

Nouriel Roubini Interview on Economy

(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who in 2006 predicted the global financial crisis, talks about prospects for additional rounds of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Roubini, speaking with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance Midday," also discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy, the dollar and the European sovereign-debt crisis. (Source: Bloomberg)

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : Obama Spending Freeze Just Spare Change

President Barack Obama proposed a five-year freeze on non-discretionary defense spending for five year to lower the deficit by about $400 billion.

But more actions will be needed to seriously tackle the deficit, Roubini said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The government will have to work on reform on entitlement programs like Social Security and "also eventually raise taxes for both the rich and the middle class," Nouriel Roubini  said.
read more >>>>

Roubini :U.S. Risks ‘Train Wreck’ From Bond Vigilante Wrath

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the global economy and U.S. fiscal policy. Standard Chartered Chief Economist Gerard Lyons joins the discussion moderated by Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." They speak from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)
“In many of these emerging markets two-thirds of their consumer-price indexes are food, energy and transportation,” “When these things rise it becomes a really significant social cost.” Roubini said.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Roubini : The housing sector is double dipping

Roubini : ...".....Well, my view on housing is that actually the housing sector is double dipping. Of course you can find a buy at a price much lower than listed, then it is a buy. But if you're looking at the macro data, where in the spring of last year, a time where prices were going up and demand and supply was increasing, but that was all driven with the fact with these first-time homebuyer tax credit.
So anybody who wanted to by a home, bought it by April. As soon as their tax credit expired, demand collapsed, prices started to fall again. So demand is falling, supply is increasing because there is a shadow inventory of millions of not yet foreclosed homes. Therefore, prices are going to fall even further.
So if there is one sector of the economy I would say that is already double dipping, that certainly is the housing and real estate sector. So unfortunately, what is locally working might not be at a macro, national level still working....."
in www.forbes.com

Roubini : We have to starve the beast

Roubini: ...Why not? We have to starve the beast. The official policy approach has been, let's create a resolution regime for an orderly wind down. My concern is: How do you, in an orderly fashion, close down a globally operating financial institution like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley in the heat of the next crisis? It is too risky, and in the end it would be: Let's bail them out again.....
in www.spiegel.de

Monday, January 24, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : we risk creating zombie banks

In a recent interview with the German news paper Der Spiegel , Dr Nouriel Roubini was asked about what would have been the alternative to stimulus programs and the intervention of the central banks? Dr. Nouriel Roubini said that we should be careful not to go down that road cause we risk creating zombie banks ....:
Roubini " That's true. But we have to be careful not to go down that road for too long. Otherwise we risk creating zombie banks and companies that are kept alive artificially. Also, look what is going on with the banking industry. We started with a too-big-to-fail problem, and part of the policy response to the crisis has been even more financial consolidation. JP Morgan took over Bear Stearns and Bank of America took over Merrill Lynch. What we have now is financial institutions that are even bigger. Those institutions, even more then before, know if they do something dangerous, something reckless, they will be bailed out again."
in www.spiegel.de

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : how to recognize a bubble

Nouriel Roubini :..."... It's difficult. I get suspicious when people say, this time it's different and this innovation is going to radically change the way we live and work and it is going to lead to long-term massive increase in actual wealth. During the tech bubble there were people writing books with titles like "Dow at 36,000."
in www.spiegel.de

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Roubini : the markets are very worried about Greece

Nouriel Roubini :"...Today the markets are very worried about Greece, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. Increasingly, bond market vigilantes have woken up in places like the UK and Ireland. Even the US and Japan will have problems because of their huge budget deficits. Maybe not this year, but they will eventually. In the US, states like California, Nevada, Arizona, New York and Florida have immense fiscal problems. The growing budget deficits and the huge government debts are really what worry me most...."
in www.spiegel.de

Friday, January 21, 2011

Roubini : China, India , Brazil are the only few bright spots

Roubini : I'm a realist. I can only see a few bright spots in some countries like China, India or Brazil. But the rest? The US economic recovery has been anemic, Japan looks comatose, and Europe is facing a double dip. The Continent is vulnerable to falling back into recession. Even before the Greek shock, the outlook was rather moderate, but now euro zone growth is closer to zero.
in www.spiegel.de

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Roubini : In The Eurozone the problem is also the amounts of debt in the private sector and the banks

Nouriel Roubini :"...Well, my fear has been that unfortunately in the case of the eurozone and a number of insolvent or nearly insolvent countries in it, their problems may just not be of liquidity but also the amounts of debt in the private sector and the banks.
The robust backstopping of the financial systems by the governments has made them near-insolvent . So, provision of liquidity might not be sufficient. At some point down, there might be coercive restructuring of public debt of countries like Greece and Ireland.
And unfortunately, problems are now spreading to Portugal, possibly Spain and other parts of the eurozone. There is also problem of competitiveness. And now, restoring of not only large stocks of public debt but also private liabilities owned by organizations. ..."

via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Nassim Taleb - What is a Black Swan?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - What is a "Black Swan?"

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Roubini : Risks of financial contagion in Europe

Nouriel Roubini wrote in an article in the Australian Financial Review of the 17th Jan 2011 : “One of the most important risks is financial contagion in Europe if the euro zone’s problems spread, as seems likely, to Portugal, Spain and Belgium,” .

Roubini : China Needs To Radically Change Its Broken Growth Model.


Nouriel Roubini
:..."Clearly China needs to radically change its broken growth model in the direction of reduced exports, investment and savings, and increased consumption. But there are structural—and cultural—reasons why the Chinese save so much and consume so little. Radical policy reforms may take more than a generation to rebalance the Chinese economy toward a more sustainable growth model." - in www.newsweek.com

Monday, January 17, 2011

Roubini on The Inflation in India

Nouriel Roubini :"...In part, what is happening is that some of the inflationary pressures are external to the country. There is increase in global commodity prices. Oil, energy, food-... that is not directly in your control.But it is also that domestic demand has been robust for good reasons. But, constraints are on the supply side. If demand is growing, supply has to grow as fast to maintain price stability. There are bottlenecks on the productive side of the economy because of lack of infrastructure.  Invest in a various range of economic reforms to sustain an increase in potential growth. Make sure that as potential growth becomes higher, actual economic growth becomes higher and then inflationary pressures get contained. If actual growth becomes higher than potential, then one of the consequences will be rising inflation..."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Friday, January 14, 2011

Nassim Taleb : Atheists and the Stock Market

Atheists and the Stock Market - Nassim Nicholas Taleb




Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2008/02/04/Future_Has_...

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives his take on beliefs, religion, and stock market analysts.

-----

The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme and rare events, the "Black Swans" i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematical sciences (probability theory, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity & incomplete information in economics), and cognitive science (the mental biases making us "fooled" by randomness). He mainly derives his intuitions from a 2-decade long and intense practice of derivatives trading ("nondull" activities with plenty of randomness).

Taleb is currently a researcher at London Business School. He the Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Fellow in Mathematics in Finance, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University (since 1999), and research fellow, Wharton School Financial Institutions Center, and Chairman, Empirica LLC.

Taleb held senior trading positions with trading houses in New York and London and operated as a floor trader before founding Empirica LLC. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : I prefer to be called Dr Realist

Nouriel Roubini :"...I don’t think I am Dr Doom. I prefer to be called Dr Realist . You should not be an optimist or pessimist but do a reasonable and realistic assessment of both upside and downside risks.

We are in a very complex global economy . There are some parts of the world that are doing very well including India and Asia. Advanced economies are currently weaker. So, we have to be sensible, objective and realistic about it. ..."

via ET Now

Monday, January 10, 2011

Roubini predicts an expensive future: for the German Tax Payers

Nouriel Roubini  predicts an expensive future: for the German Tax Payers he speaks out what German taxpayers hardly want to hear: he believes that the Euro area needs substantial amounts of money from Germany. Money which finally has to come from the German taxpayers:
Spiegel: Star-Ökonom sieht Euro-Schicksal in deutscher Hand, Jan. 8, 2011
Er hat die Finanzkrise vorhergesagt, nun prognostiziert Nouriel Roubini den Deutschen eine teure Zukunft: Der Star-Ökonom weist der Bundesrepublik die Rolle des Entscheiders über Leben oder Tod des Euro zu. read more in the Spiegel

Analyzing the Markets - Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics

Jan. 4 2011 | Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy at Roubini Global Economics joined CNBC on Tuesday for a closer look at the markets.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : You cannot resolve problems of global imbalance without having India and China on board

Nouriel Roubini :..."...I believe, on one side, it is necessary because the global economic and financial problems require a systemically important emerging market economies to be on the table.You cannot resolve problems of global imbalance , energy security, financial stability and climate change without having countries like India and China and many other emerging markets on board. In that sense, G7 was obsolete. But in other sense, it is much difficult to reach an agreement with 20 countries on the table and therefore, agreements were only in the time of crisis. But now there is wide divergence of views on a wide spectrum of issues. ..."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Friday, January 7, 2011

Rachel Ziemba, Expects Relatively Weak 4.3% Growth for Russia

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics, discusses the investment environment in Russia and the outlook for the nation's economy. Ziemba speaks with Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television's "Fast Forward." (Source: Bloomberg)

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Roubini : A gradual and progressive liberalisation of the financial system will allow the operations of foreign financial institutions in any economy

Nouriel Roubini :"....A gradual and progressive liberalisation of the financial system will allow the operations of foreign financial institutions in any economy, including India.
It is a good idea. Of course, you have to do it to make sure that these institutions are well supervised and regulated. That they have enough of their own capital and liquidity . And they operate on a fair basis compared to domestic financial institutions.The problem seems to be that finance is global, but regulation is still national. Is there anyway nations can cooperate and coordinate sufficiently to ensure that regulation also becomes global?
That is necessary. The Basel 3 criteria will apply to a large range of financial institutions in a large number of countries . In some sense, even Basel 2 was a global agreement about regulation. The problem was not that it was not global enough, it was that the criteria of Basel 2 were not actually appropriate.
In practice, excess reliance on market disciplines, self regulation and internal risk management , pro-cyclical kind of capital standards. It is not just enough to have global rules, but the rules about regulation and supervision should be appropriate. ...."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Roubini : lessons. Like from the US, UK, Ireland, Iceland , Spain, real estate bubbles

Nouriel Roubini :"...There are many lessons. Like in US, UK, Ireland, Iceland , Spain, if you let the real estate bubble to get out of hand and burst, then the collateral damage, in the real economy, to the public finances is severe.
And deterioration in public finances is both driven by the need to bail out banks and also by surging deficits due to collapse of their real economic activity. In case of Ireland, one of the lessons is that, I think it was a mistake to honour unsecured claims on the banks amounting to 10% of GDP. By the sovereign guaranteeing these claims, the public debt has grown by another 10% of the GDP. In this case, sovereign was already distressed.
So, if you keep on socialising private losses and putting them on the back of the sovereign, then at some point the back of the sovereign is going to crack. And the insolvency of the sovereign is going to be damaging back into the real economy and the financial system because the sovereign will not be able to backstop the financial system.So I would have responded by imposing a haircut on the unsecure senior creditors of the bank. ...."

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Roubini : L Shape stagnation in the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini  :"...Well, in the case of Eurozone, five economies, three are still contracting, Spain, Greece and Ireland, two of them Portugal and Italy, are barely growing. So, it is not even a question of double dip they never got out of the first dip.


It is more like the shape of an L of stagnation like in the case of Japan in the longer term unless they solve their own problems. So the risk of double dip and continuation of recession is highest in the periphery of the eurozone. ..."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Monday, January 3, 2011

Roubini on The EU response to the crisis in Ireland

Nouriel Roubini  : "....my fear has been that unfortunately in the case of the eurozone and a number of insolvent or nearly insolvent countries in it, their problems may just not be of liquidity but also the amounts of debt in the private sector and the banks.


The robust backstopping of the financial systems by the governments has made them near-insolvent . So, provision of liquidity might not be sufficient. At some point down, there might be coercive restructuring of public debt of countries like Greece and Ireland.


And unfortunately, problems are now spreading to Portugal, possibly Spain and other parts of the eurozone. There is also problem of competitiveness. And now, restoring of not only large stocks of public debt but also private liabilities owned by organisations. ..."
via www.economictimes.indiatimes.com

Nouriel Roubini : Currency war could escalate into trade war

Nouriel Roubini : Currency war could escalate into trade war
Currency war could escalate into trade war: Nouriel Roubini


Click Here to Watch the Interview >>>

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Nouriel Roubini and Joseph Stiglitz on THE STATE OF THE WORLD 2011

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and former RBI governor YV Reddy on QE2 impact on the US economy, dollar devaluation and currency wars, India's inflation problem and a whole host of other issues , in the second part : Nouriel Roubini and Raghuram Rajan on the benefits and risks of quantitative easing, the rush of funds into emerging markets and India's growth in 2011.

NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

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Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in