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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Nassim Taleb, America finds fools to buy its bonds, January 2011

Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011:
The American budget deficit is worse than that of Greece ...the fact that you can find some fool to buy your bonds so far may cease ....the Chinese have so far 2 trillion and we need a trillion to borrow ...and now it is partly done by printing and partly done by going to find a fool to buy the bonds ...so really we have a very fragile situation in the United States without unlike Greece having the IMF on top to force them ...


Nassim Taleb, fragile investments at this time, January 2011

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Roubini The Sharp rise in food commodities and the unrest in the Middle east

Nouriel Roubini :......The Sharp rise in food commodities and the Middle east unrest n are the next crisis , it is not only in the middle east but also in India Pakistan and other parts of the world , the rise of commodity prices is leading to social instability , we can see regimes changes in most of the middle east countries in the next months if not in the next years , the most probable candidates according to Nouriel Roubini are Yemen which could see a break-up and a possible civil war , Bahrain may see a regime change which will trigger changes in neighboring eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia also a majority Shiites just like Bahrain but ruled by Sunni dynasties , the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia are those with most of the oil fields , another possible candidate for unrest are Jordan Syria and of course Iran ....


Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Nassim Taleb on ManagemenTV

I like the interviewer, he seems like an ordinary guy, partly clueless. Also, this was a good summary of many of the points Nassim Taleb has been trying to make, since Fooled By Randomness and onward.It's good that Nassim is taking his time with the book, but also sad that it probably won't be here for several years.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : unrest in Libya could lead to a spike in oil prices and global recession

Nouriel Roubini  : "...three out of the past five global recessions have followed a Middle East geopolitical shock that led to a spike in oil prices. In the other two global recessions, oil prices also played a role...."
via www.citywire.co.uk

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Nouriel Roubini, and Ian Bremmer, outlook on the Economy 15 Feb 2011 CNBC

Tues. Feb. 15 2011 | Discussing whether economic recovery has taken hold, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : we are pushing the problem towards the future

Feb 18, 2011 | Economist Nouriel Roubini says to avoid a 'fisical train wreck' America needs to make sacrifices and have leaders take risks.
Nouriel Roubini :"...I think we are kicking the can down the road and the president the democrats are doing it but also the republicans , in order to reduce the budget deficit we have to cut spending and eventually it will also increase revenues and taxes but so far the democrats are against entitlement reforms that is necessary medicare medicaid social security and the republicans are against any form of tax increases ..." we are pushing the problem towards the future ..." Roubini added

Nouriel Roubini, CNBC Interview 15 Feb 2011 - insight on the economy and markets

Final insight on the economy and markets, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Nouriel Roubini, : Checking Economy s Pulse

Feb. 15 2011 | Insight on U.S. retail sales and other economic data, with CNBC's Rick Santelli & Steve Liesman; Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Nouriel Roubini, and Ian Bremmer on the G-zero world

Balance of Power Politics
Feb. 15 2011 | Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics, and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group, discuss the rise of conflict and less cooperation in international economic relations


Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Roubini : Inflation worrisome in EMs, oil price risky

Nouriel Roubini : “In the next few months equities could rise, because their corporate profits are still strong. The question is whether the economic recovery is going to be sustained and whether some of the risks that we are seeing down the line on the financial markets are going to materialize. I think they would materialize,”



Burgeoning inflation has plagued the emerging markets including India while governments are trying to tame it by tightening of monetary policies. Global investors and experts are concerned about it too.According to Nouriel Roubini , equities may rise over next few months.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Roubini : No crisis is identical but many of them are similar

Roubini : No crisis is identical but many of them are similar. There is a stage of boom and bubble before the bust and the crash. People will see the value of certain assets like homes or equity go up, then they will use these assets as a collateral for borrowing too much and therefore you have a build-up of leverage in the financial system. And then, once the bubble goes bust, the value of the assets falls and people are stuck with all this debt they can't repay.
in www.spiegel.de

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Roubini : The financial supermarket model obviously has not worked

Nouriel Roubini :" ......It's a good start, but I am thinking in a more radical direction. The financial supermarket model obviously has not worked. An institution where you have, all in one place, commercial banking, investment banking, hedge funds, insurance and lots of other financial services becomes too complex to manage. No CEO can effectively monitor that. So, this all needs too be broken up into pieces. If you have many different institutions which do different types of financial services, none of them will be systemically important...."   Nouriel Roubini was commenting on the US President Barack Obama has introduced plans for financial reform, including the so-called Volcker rule
in www.spiegel.de

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Roubini : commodities rush not all due to demand but also to massive liquidity

Nouriel Roubini : ....Possibly. To me it looks like some of it is not due to demand but liquidity chasing commodity. It is one of my major concerns right now: We decided to save the global economy by flooding the world with a massive amount of liquidity. Now we risk making the same mistake as during the last cycle....
in www.spiegel.de

Friday, February 11, 2011

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Complains About Bailout Hazard

We are bailing out the banks ... and the managers kept their bonuses. Bob Rubin kept 100 million dollars while hiding Black Swan risk. Nassim Taleb complains on Fareed Zakaria's CNN show.you can't run a system based on any commercial enterprise capitalizing their profits and socializing their losses


Politics is about power to choose who lives or dies literally and economically. If the US govt has no constitutional authority to invest in commercial ventures and all the money must be borrowed then why not borrow enough to give every taxpayer a 100% refund check for all 2008 taxes paid + enough to run the govt through 2009 so that no one would have to pay any taxes for 2009? This would be constitutional and the taxpayers would jump-start the economy from the ground up...immediately. Too easy??

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Roubini: It is necessary to start with a pre-emptive debt restructuring

Roubini : ...It is necessary to start with a pre-emptive debt restructuring. We have to find an orderly solution for debtors and creditors. And we also need to work out fiscal adjustments for other euro zone countries like Portugal or Spain....
in www.spiegel.de

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Black Swan quot; Author Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg Television 1

Black Swan quot; Author Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg Television 1

Monday, February 7, 2011

Nouriel Roubini discusses the Egypt situation

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini discusses the Egypt situation along with global inflation and food inflation. Roubini also mentions U.S. & European economic crisis and states that Greece will re-structure its debt as well as Ireland. Restructuring is a matter of "when, not if".

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Roubini : France not in risk of immediate contagion

Nouriel Roubini ...:...France I do not think it is in immediate danger of being subject to the same kind of contagion and the bond market vigilantes waking up because the fundamentals are riven but on the other side I would say the following thing : you know Sarkozy came to power a few years ago with a lot of promises of doing a lot of structural reforms but frankly so far he has done very little , now you also have a very large fiscal deficit , last year the fiscal deficit of France was bigger than the one of say Italy that is considered one of the the risky countries ..., of course the stock of public debt of France is not as high as in Italy or the peripheral Euro Zone and the bond vigilantes have not yet waken up , but now you are in situation in which France has to do fiscal austerity we'll have to accelerate structural reforms but I think the political appetite for it is limited in France ...etc....

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : This year could be a positive year for equities

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini is seeing light at the end of the tunnel. The global economy is moving forward, the eurozone is dealing with the problems and the US keeps stimulating their economic situation. Although there are still many problems, Roubini is positive for equities.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : Greece not just illiquid, but insolvent

Nouriel Roubini : ....That is only kicking the can down the road for a year. I am afraid that Greece, more likely than not ,isn't just illiquid, but insolvent. And providing an insolvent country with money and forcing it to make painful cuts isn't going to do it. Even if taxes are raised and spending is cut, Greece won't necessarily become more competitive. On the contrary, output might fall, unemployment might rise and market share will be lost. We need a plan B....
in www.spiegel.de

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Roubini : Emerging Markets, Commodities Are Best Bets

Feb. 3 2011 | Investors facing a global economy that is moving back and forth between "risk on" and "risk off" should look to emerging markets and commodities, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Thursday.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Roubini on The Thriving Stock Market

As the Dow plays peek-a-boo with 12,000, economist Nouriel Roubini discusses the market's rebound.

Nouriel Roubini : if another crisis were to occur down the line, its going to be even more virulent then the last one

Nouriel Roubini :...I don't expect that my views are going to be implemented during this crisis. We might have to wait until the next one, until more radical proposals will be considered. My worry is that if we don't create a system where these crises occur less frequently, then the backlash we have seen in recent times against market oriented economies, against reforms, against globalization, against free trade, could become more severe the next time around. The lesson is actually if another crisis were to occur down the line, it's going to be even more virulent then the last one, even more damaging and costly for any measure you want to look at, income, jobs, wealth, fiscal costs. We just can not afford that....
in www.spiegel.de

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Roubini : Economic Issues in the West

Jan. 31 2011 | The developed West is where the risk vulnerabilities are in the global economy, economist Nouriel Roubini said.

NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG