Receive these posts via Email

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Roubini : The Risk of recession is now at 60 percent

Nouriel Roubini : first of all we have reached the stall speed in the economy not just the US but also in the Eurozone the UK the most advanced economies , so we see a probability of 60 percent recession next year , and unfortunately we are running out of policy tools , every country is doing fiscal austerity and there is going to be a fiscal drag the ability to back stop the bank is now impossible because of political constrains insolvency , cannot anymore bailout their own distressed banks because they are distressed themselves , everybody would like a weaker currency but in an equilibrium if a currency is weak the others has to be stronger and there going to be more monetary easing more quantitative easing by the FEd and other central banks but the credit channel is broken

Monday, August 29, 2011

Roubini : QE3 Will Be Launched By Year End

Nouriel Roubini : QE3 will be launched by the year end, reason being that the US is heading for a recession and a liberal monetary policy is one of the few policy measures remaining with the Federal Reserve. According to him the likelihood of a double-dip recession is 50 percent. - in www.forexdice.com

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Roubini : The Fed will conduct what I have been calling permanent zero

Nouriel Roubini : The Fed is likely to soft peddle this policy change… so the Fed could start off by signalling to the market that it will conduct what I have been calling 'permanent zero'. Eventually people will be forced to accept this – and the term structure will flatten further and further out the curve. - in CNBC

We had a massive redistribution of income from labour to capital, from wages to profits

Nouriel Roubini : "If you are not hiring workers, there is not enough labour income, there is not enough consumer confidence, there is not enough consumption, there is not enough final demand. "And the last two to three years we've had actually worse than this because we had the massive redistribution of income from labour to capital, from wages to profits, inequality of income and wealth has increased. The margin of propensity to spend of a household is greater than the margin of propensity to spend of a firm because they have a higher margin of propensity to save, firms compared to households. So that redistribution of income and wealth makes the problem of excessive lack of aggregate demand even worse. - in www.theaustralian.com.au

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Roubini : this year Cash is going to be king

Nouriel Roubini : It`s better to be safe rather than sorry and this year cash is going to be king, Therefore we would stay away from a wide range of risky assets. Cash gives you zero return but that`s better than losing 20% or 30% in the stock market. Treasury bonds are at 2%, but they could go toward 1% in a recession. - in CNBC

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Nouriel Roubini on what to expect from Bernanke speech

Nouriel Roubini : ".....but the reality is we are headed towards a recession and we're running out of policy bullets. one of the few policy bullets left is for monetary policy or Quantitative easing. initial claims, announced layoffs, gdp numbers were low and they will be even lower tomorrow morning for QE2, home sales collapsing, starts still down, every economic indicator suggests we're already beyond the stall speed, we're at the beginning of an economic contraction at this point ....


Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Nouriel Roubini & Mohamed El-Erian on the Double-Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini : well the probability of a double dip recession right now in my view is at least at 50 percent not just in the United States but also in most of the periphery of the Eurozone the united Kingdom and Japan had a double dip now they are recovering from the earthquake but their structural growth is anemic , it is a situation in which there was too much debt in the private sector now there is too much debt in the public sector and this painful process of delivering we need to spend less to save more to reduce your debt implies weak economic growth , but the economic growth have now become so weak most of these economies are at a stall sped it is like an airplane that decelerates to the point in which it reaches a stall speed either you accelerate and you get to escape velocity or otherwise you start a free fall


Monday, August 22, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : QE3 started

Nouriel Roubini : QE3 started in Japan & Switzerland via fx action &/or monetary easing. Fed will eventually get to QE3 but it will be too little too late - via Twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Social unrest will spread

Nouriel Roubini : "Recent popular demonstrations, from the Middle East to Israel to the UK, and rising popular anger in China - and soon enough in other advanced economies and emerging markets - are all driven by the same issues and tensions: growing inequality, poverty, unemployment, and hopelessness,"  "Even the world’s middle classes are feeling the squeeze of falling incomes and opportunities."  - in www.globes.co.il

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : Both American and European Economic models are broken

Nouriel Roubini :  Countries need to return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of laissez-faire and voodoo economics and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Both are broken."

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Nassim Taleb : The Banks are more powerful today than they were before the crisis

Nassim Taleb : I do not think the bad news would be the recession , the bad news is continuing to commit the same mistake , too much debt, the tumor at the center of the system that has not been removed it is when someone makes money and gets a bonus and when they lose money we pay the price , tax payers future generations , the core of the problem is that asymmetry in pay off , socializing the losses and privatizing the gain and the generator of that inequity is still there , what has happen since the crisis , these people got us here and they are raping the benefits as an industry they have not suffered , you have people in the street unemployed people , you have the federal reserve doing everything to finance these bonuses , I am outraged ....the first time we bailed out the bank was in 1982 - 83 during the Reagan years and they said OK this should never happen again but the fact that bailed out the banks then and in 87 again and keep repeating it gave the banks the feeling that they could hijack society to extract that bonus system that is extremely sneaky , since they know that if they are making mistakes someone else will pay for it but if they make the money they get the benefits , in 2008 when they bailed out the banks once again they should've set the ground to remove that problem they did not , the banks today have hijacked the government , it is like inverse of hat the french did they socialized the banks in 1981 while here it is the banks who took over the government , it is not like the banks should be taking more risk or less risk , the banks should be something others than machines to generate themselves bonuses , the banks should be something more like utility , we are bailing them out because they are a utility otherwise we will let them die like other business like the car industry , we should remove that problem that has not been addressed , today the banks are vastly more centralized than they were before the crisis they are much more powerful than they were before they have incredibly snaky lobbying in Washington and it looks like every monetary policy w have had in the United States for about ten years were there to accommodate them and today more than ever , so we have not solved the problems that got us here...we have wasted three years doing nothing but transferring money to the pockets of the bankers ....

Nouriel Roubini : time to rush to your mountain log cab

Nouriel Roubini  : when Banks and deposits are not safe and governments are bankrupt it is time to buy canned food spam , guns , ammo , gold bars and rush to your mountain log cab " - via twitter

Friday, August 19, 2011

Roubini : KARL Marx was right

Nouriel Roubini : "Karl Marx had it right. At some point capitalism can self-destroy itself because you cannot keep on shifting income from labour to capital without not having excess capacity and a lack of aggregate demand, and that's what's happening." - in an interview with The Wall Street Journal this week

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : Invest in Cash

Nouriel Roubini : I am putting most of my money in cash , one of the clienbts of my research firm a sophisticated high network individual have decided to put a billion a billion dollar of his financial network last month all hundred percent into cash , I would say now better to be safe than sorry , we do not know whether this volatility is temporary and things will improve or whether there 'll be a nasty recession and another 30 to 40 percent fall in equity prices so until the fog of uncertainty is resolved, my view is that it’s better to be safe rather than sorry. This is not the time to be in risky assets ...commodities are going to collapse if there is a recession like other risky assets ,Gold is a hedge against tail risks and a financial meltdown, If you get to that point of paranoia, it’s time to buy canned food, guns, ammunition, gold bars and a log cabin in the mountains,” Nouriel Roubini recommends cash over gold an other commodities ....

Monday, August 15, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : this is not the time to be in risky assets

Nouriel Roubini : I am putting most of my money in cash , one of the clienbts of my research firm a sophisticated high network individual have decided to put a billion a billion dollar of his financial network last month all hundred percent into cash , I would say now better to be safe than sorry , we do not know whether this volatility is temporary and things will improve or whether there 'll be a nasty recession and another 30 to 40 percent fall in equity prices so until the fog of uncertainty is resolved, my view is that it’s better to be safe rather than sorry. This is not the time to be in risky assets ...commodities are going to collapse if there is a recession like other risky assets ,Gold is a hedge against tail risks and a financial meltdown, If you get to that point of paranoia, it’s time to buy canned food, guns, ammunition, gold bars and a log cabin in the mountains,” Nouriel Roubini recommends cash over gold an other commodities ....


Sunday, August 14, 2011

Nouriel Roubini on the S&P debt downgrade and its implications on the market

Nouriel Roubini : they (the S&P) went ahed now for a number of reasons first of all they downgraded a bunch of european countries and the Europeans were bashing the rating agencies ' why are you downgrading us and not downgrading the United States ? ' then they cornered themselves at the time of the debt ceiling debate by saying that unless there is a 4 trillion dollar deficit reduction we are going to downgrade you while the others were saying may be not an at this point given the market volatility in the last couple of days they can downgrade right now and if there is going to be a turmoil in the markets on Monday they could say ' hey it is not our fault it is may be because there is market volatility ' the reality is that they contributed to the crisis that caused them to then leading them to downgrade , there is no fundamental reason at this point compared to a few months ago for a downgrade the thing that has changed right now may be is a greater risk of deep recession and that's the only fundamental difference ....

Nouriel Roubini appears at around 04:35 in the video

Friday, August 12, 2011

Roubini : The probability of a Double Dip recession is at least 50 percent

Nouriel Roubini : The probability of a Double Dip recession in my view is now at least 50 percent not just in the United States but also in most of the periphery of the Eurozone , there was too much debt in the private sector now there is too much debt in the public sector , the economic growth has now become so weak that most of there economies are now at stall speed


Monday, August 8, 2011

Roubini : we are headed towards a double dip recession

Nouriel Roubini : the ECB is going to start buying the bonds of Spain and Italy but they cannot do it for long ...we are running out of rabbits because every country including the US is going to do fiscal austerity via fiscal drag it is going to worsen growth because we cannot backstop anymore our banks , we may be doing another quantitative easing in the US but what difference it is going to make a QE3 when the last one did not made much of a difference , and everybody now wants to have a weaker currency to grow their exports , but in an equilibrium not all the currencies can be weaker , this will just lead to currency wars ....it is becoming harder to have policy coherence between different countries

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Nouriel Roubini Discusses the US Downgrade

Roubini, Rosner, Bianco and Romer Discuss US Downgrade .
Nouriel Roubini : they went ahead now for a number of reasons first of all they downgraded a bunch of European countries , and the Europeans were bashing the rating agencies 'why are you downgrading us and not downgrading the United States' , then they cornered themselves at the time of the debt ceiling debate by saying that unless there is a 4 trillion deficit reduction we are going to downgrade you while the other are saying may be not and at this point giving the market volatility in the last couple of days they can downgrade now and if there is going to be turmoil in the markets Monday they could say , Hey it is not our fault , it is may be because there is market volatility the reality is they contributed to the crisis that cause them leading to the downgrade , there is no fundamental reason at this point compared to few months ago for a downgrade the thing that has changed may be right now , there is a great risk of double dip recession and that's may be the only fundamental difference ....



Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, Joshua Rosner, managing director of Graham Fisher & Co. and Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC talk with Bloomberg's Michael McKee about Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to AA+ from AAA. Bloomberg contributor Christina Romer also speaks with Adam Johnson (Source: Bloomberg)

Friday, August 5, 2011

Nouriel Roubini Bloomberg Interview 05 Aug 2011


Nouriel Roubini : it is going to feel like a recession for most people even if technically we are not in a recession , at this point we are also running out of policy bullets, QE will no make much of a difference ...

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Nouriel Roubini - Estoril Conferences - Portugal 2011

Nouriel Roubini speech at the Estoril Conferences in Portugal : "the globalization started here in Portugal some 500 years ago " " we know that the crisis was caused by too much easy money , too much easy credit excessive debt leverage by households and financial institutions , excessive risk taking , lacks of supervision regulation of the financial system , so there was not one cause but multiple ones that led to a boom and a bubble followed by a bust and a crash " says Nouriel Roubini " but the problem we are facing today is that a crisis that started with too much private debt and leverage now has turned has morphed into a new type of crisis , it is a crisis which is now too much public debt and deficit and leverage " Roubini added ...

Monday, August 1, 2011

Nouriel Roubini : 2013 The year of The Perfect Storm

Nouriel Roubini : My prediction for the perfect storm is not this year or next year but 2013 , because everybody is kicking the can down the road , we going to have a problem in the US after the election if we do not resolve our fiscal problem , China is overheating and at fix investment of 60 percent of GDP eventually it going to get a hard landing , The Europeans are pushing their problems but Greece Ireland Portugal need to restructure their debt they are insolvent that's going to be on 2013 , Japan is going to shorten its stimulus it is going to slack again in a year from now , so I se every country in the world trying to push their problems to the future , we started with private debt public debt super national debt we are kicking the can down the road and eventually all this is going to come to a an end in 2013 - in CNBC
NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG