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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Roubini : The Eurozone PIIGS need a weaker Euro

Professor Nouriel Roubini said in a twitter message that the Eurozone PIIGS need a weaker Euro not a stronger Euro in order to restore their competitevness " EZ's PIIGS need a weaker, not stronger €, to restore their competitiveness & avoid EZ break-up. But CBs swaps action today makes € stronger " he wrote - via twitter

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Roubini: Italy Debt Must Be Restructured

Nouriel Roubini: "Soon real rates will be higher and growth negative. Moreover, the austerity that the European Central Bank and Germany are imposing on Italy will turn recession into depression,"
"The government is born wounded and weakened, as Mr Berlusconi can pull the plug on it at any time," He added - in CNBC

Monday, November 28, 2011

Spain wont be able to stay in The Eurozone says RGE

"Spain can implement the austerity measures that they'll announce and they can implement structural reforms but if the end game is to stay in the euro zone, no I don't think they can achieve that." Megan Greene, senior research analyst at Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC, " there is still a lot of uncertainty but in top of that they are going to have to implement austerity measures which is going to undermine growth " she added

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Roubini : Euro/Dollar should be 1.0 or lower

Nouriel Roubini : "Euro/$ should be 1.0 or lower to give EZ PIIGS a fighting chance to restore competitiveness & avoid a depression.Still 30% away from that" Roubini wrote in twitter , "In 2002 when there was no risk of sovereign debt crisis or EZ break-up €/$ fell well below parity to 0.82.So we are still 50% away from that" he added

Friday, November 25, 2011

Roubini : We have effectively Zero Growth

Nouriel Roubini : "If the economy is growing only 1.5 percent to 2 percent and you get a fiscal drag of 1.3 percent — that's the difference between a growth recession and effectively zero growth,"

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Roubini : Supporters of a Gold Standard Are Lunatics and Hacks

"we are never going to go back to the Gold Standard " "this idea of a a gold standard is pushed every other day by these gold bugs is not even a theory it's a theology " says Economics Professor Roubini who sees the gold standard as dangerous. In fact, he said, the gold standard was a major reason for the Great Depression. "One of the major causes of the Great Depression was the existence of the gold standard and the return to the gold standard after World War I - that they restrained the ability of central banks to provide lender of last resort support to their banks created tight money, it created bank runs, and lead eventually to the Great Depression,"

Roubini on the global climate change & the Emerging markets impact

Professor Nouriel Roubini on the margin of the CRO Assembly 2011 was asked about the Emerging markets growth and its impact on the global climate change : The Emerging markets as we know are urbanizing they are industrializing they are increasing per capita income and population so they are demanding more resources , more water more energy more oil more food more raw materials and those demands of course can affect global climate change .... certainly they have an impact on the environment ......

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

50% probability of Eurozone breakup within 2-to-3 years

Professor Nouriel Roubini said in an interview today with Yahoo Tech Ticker that there is at least a 50% probability of a breakup of the eurozone in the next 2-to-3 years, which would almost certainly lead to a fast-motion train wreck. Click Here to watch the Full Interview>>>>

Roubini : Europe Contagion Gone Viral & Global

Professor Nouriel Roubini interviewed on the phone by Yahoo Finance Roubini said that the IMF does not have enough resources to save Europe and that now the contagion is spreading to the rest of Europe , the size of the IMF resources are absolutely not sufficient to bailout Europe , Italy and Spain alone are in 3 trillion euro public debt problem equivalent to 4 trillion US Dollars .... money alone is not going to resolve the problems in Europe Roubini explains , Europe is a slow motion train wreck he added ... "The contagion has now gone viral, cross Atlantic and global." Roubini says

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Nouriel Roubini vs. James Rickards over The Gold Standard via Twitter

Yesterday, economics Professor Nouriel Roubini decided asked via twitter James Rickards, author of "Currency Wars," why he advocates for a return to the gold standard in his book "currency wars," when it was this return to gold that was a direct cause of the Great Depression. Nouriel Roubini and James Rickards engaged in a 16 hours long twitter debate over the Gold Standard . Nouriel Roubini wrote via twitter : "For study of Great Depression & Gold Standard cause of it read Temin's Lessons From The Great Depression rather than Rickards' Currency Wars"

"Goldbugism is a cult similar to worship of the Biblical Golden Calf. If we kept believin such voodoo we wold still be stranded in the desert" he added "Problem of Gold Stn: wage cuts much harder than FX deval.Politically unacceptable" Roubini explains "Goldbugism is theology not economics.There is literally no piece of evidence that would cause them to change their minds"

Monday, November 21, 2011

Roubini: Italy has passed the point of no return

Italy is past the point of no return and will be forced into a managed sovereign debt restructuring as early as 2012,RGE Roubini Global Economics warns. 'The size of the financial assistance needed to support Italy coupled with the inadequacy of the eurozone's rescue strategy is likely to force the country into a managed debt restructuring as early as 2012,' RGE's Katharina Jungen said - via www.citywire.co.uk

There is no right price of gold

"There is no "right" price of gold as for 3000 years random shocks to supply of gold have caused massive recessionary inflations & deflations " Roubini wrote via twitter

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Gold Standard in 1930s didnt allow preventing runs on banks

Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote via twitter " Gold Standard in 1930s didnt allow preventing runs on banks & sovereigns: it forced fiscal austerity that pushed Europe in runs & Depression "

"Hard money & keeping the gold standard, equivalent to today's EZ monetary union, pushed Europe into bank runs & the Great Depression in 1931" he added

Friday, November 18, 2011

Roubini : Eurozone break-up by 2014 a possibility

Nouriel Roubini : the creation of a ‘big bazooka’ from the resources of the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and other institutions is the most likely course of action. There is a 50% chance of this being unveiled in “the next few months”,

“In our view, even that limited plan may fail and once it fails it is not obvious that the international community at that point is going to ‘double down’ after having committed up to €600-€800 billion,” “At that point, orderly debt restructuring in Italy and Spain may become the right thing to do and eventually if the eurozone is not sustainable the idea of first Greece and Portugal but then of Italy or Spain exiting the eurozone cannot be ruled out.”

this could occur by the end of 2013 or in the opening months of 2014. - in www.fundweb.co.uk

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Roubini : The Eurozone Crisis has spread to the core

Professor Nouriel Roubini, in a Twitter message on Wednesday warns that the market storm that has been shaking the weaker countries of the eurozone has finally spread to the core. The crisis has led investors to doubt the ability of countries to pay back their debts. Roubini noted that the interest differential on bonds taken out by Belgium, France, Austria, and Finland compared with loans taken by Germany had grown. "Contagion has spread from periphery to core of the EZ as spreads widened in France, Belgium, Austria and Finland" Roubini wrote on twitter , "EZ financial conditions are becoming unstable as core - France,Belgium,Austria- CDS spreads are now surging & contagion spreading to core" he added in another message

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Roubini : Spain is as much of a disaster as Italy

Nouriel Roubinii : “Well right now, the worries in the market are about Italy, but Spain is as much of a disaster as Italy. There debt as a share of GDP is lower, but their deficit is higher. Unemployment 20% including young people 40%.”

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Roubini : The Eurozone crisis seems to be reaching its climax

Nouriel Roubini : The Eurozone crisis seems to be reaching its climax, with Greece on the verge of default and an inglorious exit from the monetary union, and now Italy on the verge of losing market access. But the Eurozone's problems are much deeper. They are structural, and they severely affect at least four other economies: Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus, and Spain. For the last decade, the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) were the Eurozone's consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger current-account deficits. Meanwhile, the Eurozone core (Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, and France) comprised the producers of first and last resort, spending below their incomes and running ever-larger current-account surpluses. - in project syndicate

Monday, November 14, 2011

Roubini: Chaos in Europe would hit world harder than Lehman Brothers

Roubini warns that the Chaos in Europe would hit world harder than Lehman Brothers , Nouriel Roubini : The economic shock from the fall of Europe’s economies “could be much larger than from the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008,” Roubini says from Moscow where he attends an International Conference .The situation in the Eurozone could have a serious impact on Russia too Dr Doom warned and could have a bigger shock on the world's economy than the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in 2008

Italy at risk of exiting euro zone

"I would think that in the next 12 months there is a high likelihood that 'Plan A' for Italy is not going to work,"

"Italy might be forced into a debt restructuring and down the line may be forced into an exit from the euro zone." Roubini told Reuters Television in an interview in Moscow.

Roubini : the Endgame for the Eurozone has begun

Nouriel Roubini : The recent chaos in Greece and Italy may be the first step in this process. Clearly, the eurozone’s muddle-through approach no longer works. Unless the eurozone moves toward greater economic, fiscal, and political integration (on a path consistent with short-term restoration of growth, competitiveness, and debt sustainability, which are needed to resolve unsustainable debt and reduce chronic fiscal and external deficits), recessionary deflation will certainly lead to a disorderly break-up. With Italy too big to fail, too big to save, and now at the point of no return, the endgame for the eurozone has begun. Sequential, coercive restructurings of debt will come first, and then exits from the monetary union that will eventually lead to the eurozone’s disintegration. Via Project Syndicate

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Roubini : Rising Risk of EuroZone BreakUp

Nouriel Roubini " The recent chaos in Greece and Italy may be the first step in this process. Clearly, the eurozone’s muddle-through approach no longer works. Unless the eurozone moves toward greater economic, fiscal, and political integration (on a path consistent with short-term restoration of growth, competitiveness, and debt sustainability, which are needed to resolve unsustainable debt and reduce chronic fiscal and external deficits), recessionary deflation will certainly lead to a disorderly break-up." Via Project Syndicate read full article >>>>

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Roubini : France could lose its AAA status

Nouriel Roubini Interview with Reuters from Moscow Nov 12 2011 : Nouriel Roubini : My biggest worry (regarding Europe) is series of debt restructuiring and default in the Eurozone followed by some of the member states exiting the Eurozone and eventually the break-up of the Eurozone , at this point the contagion spread from Greece to Ireland to Portugal to Cyprus to Italy and Spain and now even to french and Belgian Banks , even France could lose its AAA status

Friday, November 11, 2011

Roubini: Italy Is Doomed & Needs to Exit The Euro Zone

Italy may need to exit the Euro zone Unless ECB, Germany Step In and revert to its own national currency The Lira to resolve its debt crisis, thereby forcing the break-up of the Euro zone, Dr. Nouriel Roubini wrote in an article in the Financial Times on Friday.

"So if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. Of course that will trigger a forced conversion of euro debts into new national currency debts." Roubini said

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Roubini : Italy should go back to the Lira

Nouriel Roubini : Even a restructuring of the debt – that will cause significant damage and losses to creditors in Italy and abroad – will not restore growth and competitiveness...if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. - Roubini wrote in The Financial Times

Roubini: Italy's Days in Eurozone May Be Numbered

Nouriel Roubini : "Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt,"

Read more on Newsmax.com: Roubini: Italy's Days in Eurozone May Be Numbered Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now! "That would partially address its 'stock' problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its 'flow' problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity."

"To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone."

"Even a restructuring of the debt – that will cause significant damage and losses to creditors in Italy and abroad – will not restore growth and competitiveness...if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies."

- Roubini writes in the Financial Times . - via Newsmax

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Roubini : The worst case scenario for Italy is inevitable.

"Italy primary balance is barely >0 while a 5% of GDP surplus needed just to prevent debt/GDP ratio to rise above 120%. Clearly unsustainable" says Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini via Twitter : "Italy is TBTF Too Big to Fail but it is also TBTS Too Big To Save , A Coercive debt restructuring , Maturity extension with Par Bond will become unavoidable soon " he added "With real rates at 4% & GDP growth at 0% (better than current data) Italy still needs a 5% of GDP primary surplus to stabilize debt at 120% " "As in Greece coercive "voluntary" debt restructuring (Par/Discount) in Italy would NOT trigger CDS based on ISDA definition of credit event" He explained

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Roubini : Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley Face MF Global-Type Threat

"MF Global Lesson:fragility of I-banks same as be4: huge maturity mismatch as most financing is overnite repo; so risk of run is always there"

"Goldman, Others Face MF Global-Type Threat: Roubini" Nouriel Roubini wrote on twitter today , Roubini explains that "What happened to MF Global could happen to Jefferies, Barclays, Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley.Leverage & maturity mismatch can lead to runs,", Roubini tweeted saying that several huge financial institutions could collapse in the blink of an eye like MF Global. The Collapse may, include: Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Jefferies Barclays

Monday, November 7, 2011

If the Eurozone blows up, it all gets worse

There is a “significant risk of a Eurozone breakup,” sources say Roubini told a handful of select party guests recently, reports the Business Insider. Adds the economist, if the Eurozone goes under, “everything around the world goes sour.” - via RT.com ....Read More >>

Friday, November 4, 2011

Roubini very bearish on Europe

"Our view is very bearish." Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a "significant risk of a Eurozone breakup." This doesn't mean Greece and Portugal leaving, it means Spain and Italy ultimately leaving as well, which would mean the whole thing is toast.- Nouriel Roubini told his Clients at a party he held yesterday in his apartment - via www.businessinsider.com

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Roubini on Charlie Rose - China currency debate - 10/13/11)

Nouriel Roubini says that the unemployment problems of America are not to be blamed on the trade or on China  : ...the unemployment rate is nine percent including discouraged workers and partially employed workers 16.5 percent including people in jail is 20 percent among young and minorities it is close to thirty percent , half of the unemployed are long term unemployed , but a very little fraction of this problem has to do with China and exchange rate it has to do with the policy that led to the house boom and the housing bust about the fact that we are not invested in productivity and long term economic growth , so blame it on the Chinese does not make sense , of course in a situation where you have high unemployment rates you have social and political malaise people blame globalization people blame trade people blame China but the fundamental problems of the US are much deeper much structured

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Europe should devalue the Euro & Slash interest rates to boost exports

Nouriel Roubini : "A recession that is severe in advanced economies, the collateral damage even on emerging markets could be significant." Roubini recommended devaluing the euro to stimulate exports from the eurozone and slashing interest rates. "If they were serious about restoring growth in the short-term, they would cut rates down to zero," Roubini said. - via ET NOW

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Eurozopne eventual Breakup shock could be larger than the fall of Lehman in 2008

"In my view, there's a significant probability, more than 50 per cent, that over the next 12 months there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies," "Whether you call it a double dip recession, a continuation of the first recession or a second recession doesn't matter, it's semantic."

"In a situation where it becomes disorderly, with defaults by a number of countries and a resulting exit of a number of states from the eurozone and its eventual break-up, the shock that could occur ... could be as large, if not larger, than the fall of Lehman in 2008,"

Nouriel Roubini told a Commonwealth business forum in Perth. - in ET NOW

Nouriel Roubini : World recession looms

Nouriel Roubini : "In my view, there's a significant probability, more than 50 per cent, that over the next 12 months there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies," Roubini told a Commonwealth business forum in Perth. - in ET Now
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