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Sunday, August 19, 2012

China Hard Landing by 2013

NOURIEL ROUBINI:....  I would argue that in Germany in the core of the eurozone, there is also bailout fatigue. They say, for example, the Greeks had a Big Fat Greek Wedding, not for long weekend but for the last 20 years. We give them a first bailout, a second bailout, many Germans want to pull the plug.
In China, you have a new government at the end of the year. Either they move away from net exports, from too much savings, from too much capital investments towards more consumption, or otherwise by next year China could have also a hard landing.
In the U.S., we have shale gas. I think it has been hyped a bit too much. It's going to help the energy needs of the U.S., but that revolution may take 10 to 20 years. If there is a war in the Middle East next year, the shock to all prices is going to tip the U.S. into a recession because we're not going to be energy independent for at least another decade. - in NPR
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