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Sunday, August 19, 2012

China Hard Landing by 2013

NOURIEL ROUBINI:....  I would argue that in Germany in the core of the eurozone, there is also bailout fatigue. They say, for example, the Greeks had a Big Fat Greek Wedding, not for long weekend but for the last 20 years. We give them a first bailout, a second bailout, many Germans want to pull the plug.
In China, you have a new government at the end of the year. Either they move away from net exports, from too much savings, from too much capital investments towards more consumption, or otherwise by next year China could have also a hard landing.
In the U.S., we have shale gas. I think it has been hyped a bit too much. It's going to help the energy needs of the U.S., but that revolution may take 10 to 20 years. If there is a war in the Middle East next year, the shock to all prices is going to tip the U.S. into a recession because we're not going to be energy independent for at least another decade. - in NPR
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Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in