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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

One-third probability to get a Global Perfect Storm next year

Nouriel Roubini : Well, I think that the Goldilocks scenario in which everything becomes much better over the next, say, 18 months, between now and the end of next year, has a 10 percent probability. A world in which we continue to have a euro-zone recession but you don’t have a breakup, but things remain ugly; you have growth in the U.S. close to stall speed, but not a recession; slow growth in China and the emerging markets; and we avoid a war in the Middle East but we still have tension is maybe, you know, a 55 percent probability scenario. Then the rest of it is 35 percent. So, I would say there is a one-third probability to get a global perfect storm next year. - in Bloomberg Business Week

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Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in