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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Next big financial crisis will be made in China

Nouriel Roubini :......there is now evidence of weakening performance in China and the rest of Asia. In China, the economic slowdown under way is unmistakable. Export growth is down sharply, turning negative vis-à-vis the Eurozone's periphery. Import growth, a sign of future exports, has also fallen. ....- in project syndicate

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Roubini : The Eurozone is in deep recession

Nouriel Roubini : ....the Eurozone is in deep recession, especially in the periphery, but now also in the core economies, as the latest data show an output contraction in Germany and France. The credit crunch in the banking system is becoming more severe as banks deleverage by selling assets and rationing credit, exacerbating the downturn. Meanwhile, not only is fiscal austerity pushing the Eurozone periphery into economic free-fall, but the loss of competitiveness there will persist as relief at the waning prospect of disorderly defaults strengthens the euro's value. To restore competitiveness and growth in these countries, the euro needs to fall towards parity with the US dollar. And, while the risk of a disorderly Greek collapse is now receding, it will re-emerge this year as political instability, civil unrest, and more fiscal austerity turn the Greek recession into a depression. - in project syndicate

Monday, February 27, 2012

Roubini : Greece to leave the Euro next year

Nouriel Roubini : Greece is likely to leave the euro and adopt its own currency next year to improve competitiveness and foreign trade, as it must achieve economic growth to resolve its sovereign debt burden " Roubini told the Greek paper Kathimerini as reported by Bloomberg

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Roubini :The Chinese residential investment and commercial real-estate activity are slowing sharply

Nouriel Roubini :."....Chinese residential investment and commercial real-estate activity are slowing sharply as home prices start to fall. Infrastructure investment is down as well, with many high-speed railway projects on hold and local governments and special-purpose vehicles struggling to obtain financing amid tightening credit conditions and lower revenues from land sales. .." - in Project syndicate

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Roubini : Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013

Nouriel Roubini : ....while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America's growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011. Moreover, given continuing malaise in credit and housing markets, private consumption will remain subdued; indeed, 2 percentage points of the 2.8 per cent expansion in the last quarter of 2011 reflected rising inventories rather than final sales. And, as for external demand, the generally strong dollar, together with the global and Eurozone slowdown, will weaken US exports, while still-elevated oil prices will increase the energy import bill, further impeding growth. - in project syndicate

Friday, February 24, 2012

Roubini : Surging oil prices are a serious threat to global economic growth

Nouriel Roubini : "Surging oil prices are a serious threat to global economic growth " via twitter message "....there are many things that could go wrong in the Middle East, any combination of which might stoke fear in markets and lead to much higher oil prices. Despite weak economic growth in advanced economies and a slowdown in many emerging markets, oil is already at around $100 per barrel. But the fear premium could push it significantly higher, with predictably negative effects on the global economy." in project syndicate

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Roubini : Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising

Nouriel Roubini : .....geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, owing to the possibility of an Israeli military response to Iran's nuclear ambitions. While the risk of armed conflict remains low, the current war of words is escalating, as is the covert war in which Israel and the US are engaged with Iran; and now Iran is lashing back with terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats. The Islamic Republic, with its back to the wall as sanctions bite, could also react by sinking a few ships to block the Strait of Hormuz, or by unleashing its proxies in the region. - in project syndicate

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Roubini: Greece from Recession to Depression

Nouriel Roubini : "Based on meetings in Athens most Greeks desperately want to keep the Euro. But the economy is spinning from a recession into a depression" Roubini said in a recent twitter message from Athens in Greece where he is attending the Intelligence Squared/BBC debate on whether Greece should exit the eurozone “Even after the restructuring of Greece’s debt agreed to today, the country won’t have growth, and it’s easier to do structural reforms with growth.” roubini explained during a conference broadcast live on Skai.gr in Athens Tuesday (as reported by Bloomberg)

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Roubini in Athens for the Intelligence Squared BBC debate

Nouriel Roubini : "I am on my way to Athens for the Intelligence Squared/BBC debate on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. I will also have other meetings" he wrote in a recent twitter message

Monday, February 20, 2012

Roubini : fear premium could push Oil prices way beyond the $100 a barrel

Nouriel Roubini : "....Beyond the countries affected by the Arab Spring, rising tensions between Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni factions in Iraq since the US withdrawal do not bode well for a boost in oil production. There is also the ongoing conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, as well as strains between Israel and Turkey. In other words, there are many things that could go wrong in the Middle East, any combination of which might stoke fear in markets and lead to much higher oil prices. Despite weak economic growth in advanced economies and a slowdown in many emerging markets, oil is already at around $100 per barrel. But the fear premium could push it significantly higher, with predictably negative effects on the global economy. - in Project Syndicate

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Roubini : The Eurozone is in deep recession

Nouriel Roubini : First, the eurozone is in deep recession, especially in the periphery, but now also in the core economies, as the latest data show an output contraction in Germany and France. The credit crunch in the banking system is becoming more severe as banks deleverage by selling assets and rationing credit, exacerbating the downturn. Meanwhile, not only is fiscal austerity pushing the eurozone periphery into economic free-fall, but the loss of competitiveness there will persist as relief at the waning prospect of disorderly defaults strengthens the euro’s value. To restore competitiveness and growth in these countries, the euro needs to fall toward parity with the U.S. dollar. And, while the risk of a disorderly Greek collapse is now receding, it will re-emerge this year as political instability, civil unrest, and more fiscal austerity turn the Greek recession into a depression. - in Project Syndicate

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Roubini : US economic Data points partly misleading

Bloomberg UTV Special: Nouriel Roubini to talk about the World Economy View the global macro economics . Nouriel Roubini says there is broader weakness in most developed economies

Friday, February 17, 2012

Roubini : The Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising

Nouriel Roubini : Finally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, owing to the possibility of an Israeli military response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the risk of armed conflict remains low, the current war of words is escalating, as is the covert war in which Israel and the US are engaged with Iran; and now Iran is lashing back with terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats. The Islamic Republic, with its back to the wall as sanctions bite, could also react by sinking a few ships to block the Strait of Hormuz, or by unleashing its proxies in the region – the pro-Iranian Shia in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. - in Project-syndicate

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Roubini still gloomy about The Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini : “First, the eurozone is in deep recession, especially in the periphery, but now also in the core economies, as the latest data show an output contraction in Germany and France… Second, there is now evidence of weakening performance in China and the rest of Asia… Third, while US data have been surprisingly encouraging, America’s growth momentum appears to be peaking. Fiscal tightening will escalate in 2012 and 2013, contributing to a slowdown, as will the expiration of tax benefits that boosted capital spending in 2011… Finally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, owing to the possibility of an Israeli military response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.” - in project-syndicate

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Nouriel Roubini : Mexico doing well

Nouriel Roubini : "Mexico doing well: low debt, low deficit, low inflation, good growth. Emerging markets in much better shape than most advanced economies,"

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Roubini : signs of an Economic slowdown in Brazil

Nouriel Roubini "I am in Rio for policy & business meetings. Interesting times in Brazil as there are signs of an economic slowdown as global tail risks loom" via twitter

Monday, February 13, 2012

Nouriel Roubini to attend Intelligence Squared event in Greece

Nouriel Roubini to attend the debate in next Intelligence Squared event that will take place in Athens Greece on February 21st 2012 under the title "Greece Should default on its debt and leave the Euro"

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Roubini on The Glencore-Xstrata merger deal

Nouriel Roubini :"An already oligopolistic & highly concentrated industry (mining/resources) will become even less competitive with the Glencore-Xstrata deal" said Professor Nouriel Roubini in a twitter message regarding the Glencore-Xstrata merger deal , The commodities and mining companies have agreed to a $41 billion all-share merger that would see the biggest ever deal in the mining sector , shareholders have expressed their opposition to the deal and have said that they will vote against it

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Roubini : Greece is still insolvent

Nouriel Roubini : "Even with the PSI deal & a 2nd bailout Greece's debt will be close to 150% of GDP & fall to 120%, a level still of insolvency, only by 2020" Roubini wrote in a recent twitter message ....

Friday, February 10, 2012

Roubini : an ECB rate cut today would be warranted

Nouriel Roubini wrote today in a twitter message : "ECB refi rate back to its 1% level before the mistaken 2011 rate hike. Given the severe EZ recession a rate cut today would be warranted"

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Nouriel Roubini interview on China Slowdown

Nouriel Roubini and Patrick Chovanec on China: How Much Stress Can the System Take? Nouriel Roubini interviewes Patrick Chovanec, associate professor at Tsinghua University's School of Economics and Management in Beijing, China about where he sees the chinese economy going from here are we going to have a soft or a hard landing , can the internal demand replace the decreasing demand for the Chinese products from the depressed economies in the west ?

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Roubini : Hard Landing in China ?

Nouriel Roubini : "China's electricity consumption fell by 7.5% in Jan, a signal that industrial production may have sharply slowed. A sign of hard landing? " Roubini wrote in a recent twitter message ....

Monday, February 6, 2012

Nouriel Roubini speaking at CHOGM in Perth Australia

CHOGM: Nouriel Roubini, NYU Stern School of Business .James Kirby talks to economist Nouriel Roubini from New York University's Stern School of Business at CHOGM ( the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting) in Perth.

Roubini : A Macro global view is critical

Nouriel Roubini : “Anybody who does any asset management needs to know and understand the macro and top-down – the linkages across countries and not just individual countries. You need to know what happens in Greece can affect the global economy and financial market. I think a macro global view is critical [for hedge funds].” - in investmenteurope.net

U-shaped recovery rather than a typical V

Nouriel Roubini : "Once you have too much debt in the public and private sector, the painful process could last up to a decade, where economic growth remains weak and anemic and sub-par until we have cleaned up the balance sheet and invested in the things that make us more productive for the future," - in Davos

Roubini : we should invest in human capital, our structure, our technology, our innovation

Nouriel Roubini : "We have to shift our investment from things that are less productive like the financial sector and housing and real estate to things that are more productive like our people, our human capital, our structure, our technology, our innovation," - in Davos

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Roubini back to NYC from Moscow

Nouriel Roubini : "Finally back to NYC after two busy weeks of work/meetings/talks in Europe: London, Zurich, Davos/WEF, Frankfurt, Cologne, Berlin, Moscow." he wrote in a twitter message for his followers today

Nassim Taleb endorses Ron Paul but...

Nassim Taleb : "the only candidate I trust is Ron Paul." he wrote in his facebook page "I do not wish to be dragged into politics beyond my statement of trusting one, and only one candidate in this primary. Conversation ended," he added.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Roubini : the middle class is tired of corruption, authoritarianism and lack of reforms

Nouriel Roubini :" First large scale opposition demonstrations today in Moscow: the middle class is tired of corruption, authoritarianism and lack of reforms "Nouriel Roubini wrote in a twitter message live from moscow where he is actually to attend the Russia Forum of the Troika Dialogue .

Friday, February 3, 2012

Roubini : The ECB will not accept OSI to match PSI

Nouriel Roubini : "ECB will not accept OSI (loss on its holdings of Greek debt) to match PSI as that would lead to inability to continue SMP to backstop PIIGS" Nouriel wrote in a twitter message today

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Roubini : Russia Needs Restructuring to Boost Growth

Russia's economic growth will slow to a snail's pace in coming years without serious structural reforms ,said Nouriel Roubini in Moscow on Thursday where he is to attend the Russia Forum of the Troika Dialogue . "I said: Russia's potential growth is 4%, not 0.5% "Russia Needs Restructuring to Boost Growth" Nouriel Roubini explained in a related twitter message

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Roubini : China will have a significant slowdown this year

Nouriel Roubini : “In the UK there is recession, even the US is not doing great, in India there’s a slowdown and they’re worried about that. In China, exports, infrastructure investment, real estate is slowing down, so there’ll be a significant slowdown in China this year,”

Roubini : Greece will exit the EU in 1 year & break-up risk 50% in 3-5 years

Nouriel Roubini : “The eurozone is a slow-motion train wreck,”
“Countries – and not just Greece – are insolvent. I think Greece will leave the eurozone in the next 12 months, and Portugal after.”
“There is a 50pc chance that the eurozone will break up in the next three to five years. This doesn’t look like a G20 world it looks like a G-Zero world because there is no agreement on global imbalances, how to change the international monetary system, international trade, banking regulation, on all the fundamental issues.”
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Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in