Were you surprised at the GDP number that came out in late June? I saw you tweet previously that you thought it was actually under 1 percent.
Nouriel Roubini : At Roubini Global Economics, we have
been much more cautious than consensus and policymakers about the U.S.
and global recovery. We’re saying year-to-year growth is going to be
barely 1.7, 1.8 percent. And next year, where people expect 3 percent
growth, we said 2.4 percent. Guess what: Consensus at the beginning of
this year was 2.3 percent, 2.4 percent. Now it’s 1.8 percent. So
regarding next year—where three months ago consensus was at 3 percent,
and we were at 2.4 percent —now consensus is down to 2.7 percent, and I
think it’s going to be revised further downwards.
We have been, for many reasons, of the
view that while the U.S. is recovering, there will be lots of head
winds, starting with the fiscal drag and gridlock in Congress and the
variety of weaknesses, particularly the household sector. We have been
proven right. But in the short run, good news is good for the equity
markets. And bad news is also good, because it leads to more and longer
QE. - in indexuniverse