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Saturday, August 3, 2013

OIL : we think the market can go slightly lower, say, toward $90 a barrel

What are your thoughts on other commodities?

Nouriel RoubiniNouriel Roubini : We are concerned about base metals, because the slowdown of China may end up a hard landing, which implies that demand for things like copper and others could really sink. In the case of oil, we think the market can go slightly lower, say, toward $90 a barrel, but it’s probably not going much lower than $90, and $100 to $110 maximum; that’s the range for oil. Because demand is growing less and supply is increasing, you might have some softness in oil prices. But then there also is geopolitical risk. If there is a war between Israel and Iran, that could lead to an increase in the sale premium.
Soft commodities, especially agriculture and food, are slightly better supported and less cyclical. Emerging markets are still urbanizing and naturalizing, having high per capital income growth and having population growth with a few exceptions. Demand for food is going to rise over time.
Natural gas prices are going to go higher, as the U.S. starts exporting more. Prices are low in the U.S. and very high in the rest of the world. There’s a gap between very low U.S. prices and high global prices. That is going to be arbitraged. - in indexuniverse
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