Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Euro Marriage in Peril By NOURIEL ROUBINI

On the morning of July 26, 2012, I was meeting with the central bank governor of a country at the core, or stable center, of the euro zone. He was telling me that the European Central Bank could do little to rescue peripheral countries like Italy and Spain, whose interest rates were going through the roof.

 On that day, to the surprise of my interlocutor and global investors, the E.C.B. president, Mario Draghi, made his famous declaration that the bank was prepared to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. That led to the creation of outright monetary transactions, known as O.M.T., and saved the euro zone.

Today the risks for the euro zone are much lower. Still, 2013 has been a volatile year. The crisis in Cyprus showed that the euro zone remains deeply divided over how to resolve the crisis in the periphery; inconclusive German elections created new uncertainties in the euro zone’s core; and the Italian government teetered on the verge of collapse more than once.

More uncertainties are likely in 2014 if “austerity fatigue” spreads in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain and populist parties gain strength in the May 2014 European Parliament elections.
 More @ NYTimes
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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