Tuesday, January 21, 2014

4 of the important Systemic Tail Risks in a Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini : First of all, I’m not “doom-and-gloom.” I’m not “Dr. Doom,” I’m “Dr. Realist.” I predicted correctly the trouble when it did occur, but the global economy has been recovering now for a few years from a very severe financial crisis. And I would say that compared to a year ago or even two years ago, some of the tail risks to the global economy today are lower.
For example: the tail risks of breakup of the eurozone or Italy and Spain losing market access; the tail risk of another fiscal crisis in the U.S. with a fight on the debt ceiling or on the government shutdown; the tail risk at least in the short run of a hard landing of China; or the tail risk of a war between Israel and Iran that then there's a spike in oil prices.
Those are four of the important systemic tail risks in a global economy. I would say this year they are less likely than last year, and last year they were already less likely than in 2012. - in Indexuniverse

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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