Sunday, September 7, 2014
Two years ago, Shinzo Abe’s election as Japan’s prime minister led to the advent of “Abenomics”, a three-part plan to rescue the economy from a treadmill of stagnation and deflation. Abenomics’ three components—or “arrows”—comprise massive monetary stimulus in the form of quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE), including more credit for the private sector; a short-term fiscal stimulus, followed by consolidation to reduce deficits and make public debt sustainable; and structural reforms to strengthen the supply side and potential growth. It now appears—based on European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi’s recent Jackson Hole speech—that ECB has a similar plan in store for the euro zone. The first element of “Draghinomics” is an acceleration of the structural reforms needed to boost the euro zone’s potential output growth. Progress on such vital reforms has been disappointing, with more effort made in some countries (Spain and Ireland, for example) and less in others (Italy and France, to cite just two). But Draghi now recognizes that the euro zone’s slow, uneven, and anaemic recovery reflects not only structural problems, but also cyclical factors that depend more on aggregate demand than on aggregate supply constraints. Thus, measures to increase demand are also necessary.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics