Friday, January 1, 2016
How to Predict the Next Financial Crisis: Finance, Economics, Stock Market (2010)
Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1958) is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm.
The child of Iranian Jews, he was born in Turkey and grew up in Italy. After receiving a BA in political economics at Bocconi University, Milan and a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he became an academic at Yale and a visiting researcher/advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early research focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who in 2009 became Treasury Secretary.
Roubini is one of few economists who predicted the housing bubble crash of 2007-2008. He warned about the crisis in an IMF position paper in 2006. Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" in the media. In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage." The New York Times notes that he foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt."In September 2006, he warned a skeptical IMF that "the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession". Nobel laureate Paul Krugman adds that his once "seemingly outlandish" predictions have been matched "or even exceeded by reality." Syndicated personal finance columnist Eric Tyson was one of the first to document some of the many incorrect predictions made by Roubini.
By highlighting some of his many past predictions as being accurate, Roubini has promoted himself as a major figure in the U.S. and international debate about the economy, and spends much of his time shuttling between meetings with central bank governors and finance ministers in Europe and Asia. Although he is ranked only 512th in terms of lifetime academic citations, he was #4 on Foreign Policy magazine's list of the "top 100 global thinkers." In 2011 and 2012, he was named by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers. In December 2013 Roubini was awarded by Global Thinkers Forum the honorary GTF 2013 Award for Excellence in Global Thinking. He has appeared before Congress, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the World Economic Forum at Davos.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics