Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Roubini : European markets outlook worse than stress test result

Nouriel Roubini of RGE Roubini Global Economics said that the US GDP is likely to see a V-shaped recovery, reports CNBC-TV18. However he warned that the second half of the year is going to be worse."The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk were not realistic enough in my view especially on sovereign risk" said. Nouriel Roubini,most of the sovereign risk was held in maturity books and the tests did not allow for a default Roubini explains and there is a question on how you measure also things that have not been market down like toxic assets ...the strength of the Euro is more likely the weakness of the dollar , until a month ago the dollar looked like less ugly than the Euro due to the problems in the Eurozone stress test sovereign default risk risk of a double dip risk of the break-up of the monetary union , last month the month the numbers have come out worse for the United States in terms of macroeconomic data ....“Certainly the second half of the year has to be worse. Less than 2% in second quarter is not a recession, but everything is worse. It feels like a recession.”
“More of their government debt is held to maturity rather than trading book and therefore they need not consider their results,”“Like in the US case, if you make assumptions that the three key factors , growth unemployment and home price deflation are too rosy, then u can get at the macro level, losses that are smaller than otherwise,”

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