Thursday, June 16, 2011

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years that could lead a 40 percent decline in the S&P, : "from universea investments a $6 billion hedge fund. that hedge fund advised by black swan author, Nicholas Taleb. Kate Kelly obtained a warning. black swan author talib one of the most famous bears out there and now his fund which specializes in positioning clients for extremely negative market scenarios is taking this stunningly bearish position. in a research paper distributed to clients of the fund this week, mark spitnagel argues the likelihood of, are you sitting down, a 40% correction. his dire prediction is based on a look of a 110 years of equity market history and how it core lates to a a metric which is called the cue ratio, a company divided by its total assets, based on past history he asserts the current q ratio of about 1.04, s&p stocks are significantly overvalued and that there's a 20% chance of a more than 40% correction in the offing."

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