Saturday, September 17, 2011

The real public debt of China is 80 percent of GDP

Nouriel Roubini : If you are looking at the Chinese banks they have a huge amount of exposure to state and local government to state owned enterprise and to these special purpose vehicles that have done the financing of the local investment , has been several trillion Yuans , now we estimate that about 30 percent of these loans are going to go into default and becoming non performing , so the aid is going to be certainly on the Chinese banks some of them are going to be back stopped by the local government if the local government cannot do the job it is going to be the central government , at the end of the day the banking crisis are going to be losses of some agents of the government either state owned banks or the provincial government or the central government and that's why the official debt of China is 17% of he GDP at the central level but when you add the banks the state and local government and all the other liabilities we are already estimating that the public debt of China is already 80% of GDP , so you are going to have an MPL problem , you'll have a public debt and deficit problem then you'll going to have an investment boom going bust problem and that's why we are going to have a hard landing in China by 2013 at the latest - in Bloomberg

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