Friday, December 27, 2013

I think the ECB will end up in QE next year

 Will the ECB have to go beyond forward guidance?

The refinancing rate is zero, they could introduce negative rates on deposits but not too negative ones: Maybe –0.1%, but not –1%, otherwise they create problems in money markets. And such a cut won’t make a difference. I think the ECB will end up in QE next year, because even the introduction of negative rates won’t prevent the Euro from appreciating: the current account is in a large surplus, the tailrisks of the Eurozone have been reduced, so the money is flowing back. These fundamental pressures remain. So, the only escape is outright QE.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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