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Thursday, October 2, 2014

An Obvious Paradox Occurred with Oil Prices



"A century ago, financial markets priced in a very low probability that a major conflict would occur, blissfully ignoring the risks that led to the first world war until late in the summer of 1914," Roubini said.
"Back then, markets were poor at correctly pricing low-probability, high-impact tail risks. They still are."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Roubini : The stereotype about BRICS is false

Nouriel Roubini (Professor of ecnomics at New York University)
With the right monetary and credit easing, the fiscal adjustments and the structure reform the chances that Eurozone recovery is going to be stronger. The stereotype about Brics is false: three of them this year are going to grow less than United States. So the divide is going to be: which of the countries have the political institution to do economic adjustments and reforms . One of the reasons why italian economic growth has been stagnant is because there are plenty of rigidities. Renzi maybe is too ambitious but I think it is the right horizon.The positive effects of reforms will take two to five years to have an impact






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monday, September 29, 2014

Nouriel Roubini maps out the Kremlin's plan for a re-divided world. Putin's Eurasian Union Plan


NEW YORK – The escalating conflict in Ukraine between the Western-backed government and Russian-backed separatists has focused attention on a fundamental question: What are the Kremlin’s long-term objectives? Though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s immediate goal may have been limited to regaining control of Crimea and retaining some influence in Ukrainian affairs, his longer-term ambition is much bolder.

That ambition is not difficult to discern. Putin once famously observed that the Soviet Union’s collapse was the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century. Thus, his long-term objective has been to rebuild it in some form, perhaps as a supra-national union of member states like the European Union.

This goal is not surprising: declining or not, Russia has always seen itself as a great power that should be surrounded by buffer states. Under the Czars, Imperial Russia extended its reach over time. Under the Bolsheviks, Russia built the Soviet Union and a sphere of influence that encompassed most of Central and Eastern Europe. And now, under Putin’s similarly autocratic regime, Russia plans to create, over time, a vast Eurasian Union.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#rOHpDSKD5CgciiUt.99






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Canada needs to weaken The Loonie


I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Roubini's RGB Bearish on Australian Dollar




David Nowakowski of Roubini's analyst thinks Aussie Dollar has room for downside risks.

     "Although some easing of China's credit crunch will help Australian exports in the short run, we see lower Chinese growth in 2015 as a headwind that will weaken Australia's growth and inflation next year, and weigh on growth-orientated assets such as equities and the Australian dollar."


    "The Australian dollar is likely to weaken to below US75¢ - a fall of around 20 per cent - on a combination of the lower interest rate differential and slumping GDP growth, with commodity price effects outweighing volumes."



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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